ABSTRACT
Election % share (GB.) Galluv Harris MORI Marplan NOP ORC 1945 C 39.3 1.7 Lab 48.8 -1.8 NO NO NO NO NO L 9.2 1.3 POLL POLL POLL POLL POLL Others 2.7 -1.2 1950 C 43.0 0.5 Lab 46.8 -1.8 NO NO NO NO NO L 9.3 1.2 POLL POLL POLL POLL POLL Others 0.9 0.1 1951 C 47.8 1.7 Lab 49.3 -2.3 NO NO NO NO NO L 2.6 0.2 POLL POLL POLL POLL POLL Others 0.3 - 1955 C 49.3 1.7 Lab 47.3 0.2 NO NO NO NO NO L 2.8 -1.3 POLL POLL POLL POLL POLL Others 0.6 - 1959 C 48.8 -0.3 -0.8 U b 44.6 1.9 NO NO NO -0.5 NO L 6.0 -1.5 POLL POLL POLL 1.3* POLL Others 0.6 -0.1 -
1964 C 42.9 1.6 1.4 Lab 44.8 1.7 NO NO NO 2.6 NO L 11.4 -2.9 POLL POLL POLL -3.5 POLL Others 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 1966 C 41.5 -1.5 0.1 Lab 48.8 2.2 NO NO NO 1.8 NO L 8.6 -0.6 POLL POLL POLL -1.2 POLL Others 1.1 -0.1 -0.7 1970 C 46.2 -4.2 -0.2 -5.2 -2.1 0.3 Lab 43.9 5.1 4.1 NO 6.7 4.3 1.6 L 7.6 -0.1 -2.6 POLL -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 Others 2.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 * © 00
1974(F) C 38.8 0.7 1.4 -2.3 0.7 0.9 Lab 38.0 -0.5 -2.8 NO -3.5 -2.5 -1.3 L 19.8 0.7 2.2 POLL 5.2 2.2 1.4 Others 3.4 -0.9 -0.8 0.6 -0.4 -1.0 1974(0) C 36.7 -0.7 -2.1 -3.4 -5.7 -2.3 Lab 40.2 1.3 2.8 NO 2.8 5.3 1.6 L 18.8 0.2 0.5 POLL 0.7 0.7 0.6 Others 4.3 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.1
1979 C 44.9 -1.9 0.1 0.1 1.1 Lab 37.8 3.2 NO -0.8 0.7 1.2 NOW L 14.1 -0.6 POLL 0.9 -0.6 -1.6 HARRIS Others 3.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7
1983 C 43.5 2.0 3.5 0.5 2.5 3.5 Lab 28.3 -1.8 -3.3 -0.3 -2.3 -3.3 NOW L2 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 HARRIS Others 2.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1987 C 43.3 -2.3 -1.3 0.7 -1.3 -1.3 Lab 31.5 2.5 3.5 0.5 3.5 3.5 NOW L2 23.1 0.4 -2.1 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 HARRIS Others 2.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Election 1992
C 42.8 -4.3 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 -3.8 Lab 35.2 2.8 4.8 3.8 2.8 6.8 NOW L 18.3 1.7 -0.3 1.7 1.7 -1.3 HARRIS Others 1997
3.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.7
C 31.5 1.5 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 -3.5 Lab 44.3 2.7 3.7 3.7 -1.3 5.7 NOW L 17.2 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 0.8 -3.2 HARRIS Others 7.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0
Winning Party Ave. Election & % lead Gallup Harris MORI Marplan NOP ORC ICM error 1945 Lab 9.5 -3.5 3.5 1950 Lab 3.8 -2.3 2.3 1951 Lab 1.5* -4.0 4.0 1955 C 2.0 1.5 1.5 1959 C 4.2 -2.2 -0.3 1.3 1964 Lab 1.9 -0.1 1.2 0.7 1966 Lab 7.3 3.7 1.7 2.7 1970 C 2.3 -9.3 -4.3 -11.9 -6.4 -1.3 6.6 1974(F) C 0.82 1.2 4.4 1.2 3.2 2.2 2.4 1974(0) Lab 3.5 2.0 4.9 6.2 -11.0 3.9 5.6 1979 C 7.1 -5.1 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 1.7 1983 C 15.2 3.8 6.8 0.8 4.8 6.8 4.6 1987 C 11.8 -4.8 -4.8 0.2 -4.8 -4.8 3.9 1992 C 7.6 -7.1 -9.6 -8.6 10.6 -7.6 8.7 1997 Lab 12.8 1.2 4.2 7.2 9.2 -2.8 4.9 Average error on lead 3.5 5.6 3.5 4.9 5.0 2.5 5.2 1. Labour won 1.5% more votes in Great Britain than the Conservatives but the latter ob
No. o f elections Minimum % Maximum % Average % Poll covered error1 error1 error2 Gallup Poll 15 0.2 5.1 1.4 National Opinion Polls 11 0.1 6.8 2.0 Marplan 6 0.1 6.7 1.9 Harris Poll 7 0.2 4.8 1.9 MORI 5 0.1 4.8 1.3 Opinion Research Centre 3 0.3 2.3 1.1 ICM 2 1.3 4.8 1.8
