ABSTRACT
Supplementing the preceding case studies, this chapter is methodologically quantitative rather than qualitative, using Event History Analysis and Firth logistical regression. It is based upon a complex independent variable intended to capture the strategic logic of incumbent politicians pursuing franchise reform for purposes of electoral advantage. The variable incorporates the sign of the anticipated gain (or loss) from property qualification repeal, the forecast size of that gain, and the relative importance of that gain assessed by a given party’s majority in different governing institutions. It is hypothesized that, the greater the anticipated gain and the more critical the gain for the incumbent party, the higher the probability of property qualification removal. From the available data, the claim is sustained statistically, to a much greater degree than alternate claims found in the literature. Moreover, what was causal in prospect was effective in retrospect. The parties responsible for franchise expansion reaped the benefits, comparing the three elections prior to and the three elections subsequent to franchise reform.
