ABSTRACT

The current U.S. economic expansion, which began in March 1991, exhibited an unusually weak and long recovery period. As of March 1999, it is 96 months old and is the second longest expansion to be officially recorded in U.S. history thus far. It has overtaken the 1982-1990 expansion, which lasted 92 months and is within striking distance of overtaking the 1961-1969 longest U.S. expansion of 106 months duration. In the post World War II period, the average length of all expansions, including the current one, thus far has been 55 months, while the mean of the three longest expansions (1961-1969, 1982-1990, 1990-present) is 98 months as of now.