ABSTRACT

The usefulness of survey data in monitoring systems designed to detect changes in economic activity has been evidenced by many theoretical and empirical studies. It has been proved that certain qualitative indicators, reflecting the opinion of economic agents (enterpreneurs, consumers, etc.) on their own situation and on the tendency of business in general, may be a valuable source of information on the actual course of business. On a theoretical plane, the concept of rational expectations explains the link between real economic developments and their reflection in people's attitudes and judgements. On an empirical plane, the analysis of leads and lags between micro-and macroeconomic variables provides strong proof in favour of monitoring and forecasting properties of such qualitative indicators as investment plans, order-books and capacity utilization rates of enterprises, or major purchase intentions of the consumers. Therefore, survey data are widely used in macroeconomic assessments and forecasts.