ABSTRACT
We defined our task as one of measuring the relative levels of pollution and emission rates under a number of possible alternative development paths. The future is unpredictable. However, within a universe of possibilities that is infinite, there are some trajectories that are more likely, particularly given what we know of emergent trends and institutional inertia. A given strategy should perform well against a set of possible futures. The judgments of the likelihood, or probability, of the possible futures will affect the degree to which current choices take a given possible future into consideration. In order to affect current policy decisions, an effective forecast needs to engage current decision-makers not only in the identification of key variables, but in the construction and consideration of possible futures.
