ABSTRACT
Of all the countries considered here the one which by its own decisions could have the most influence in altering the shape of the grain market over the next two decades is China. With a population of a billion and a quarter or more by the end of the century, a decision to import on a major scale and to satisfy even a proportion of the potential demand for meat and improved diets which now exists would transform the world market. Equally, a reversion to self-sufficiency balancing wheat imports with limited exports of surplus rice and thereby avoiding additional pressures on the balance of payments would sharply diminish the role of the world's second largest purchaser of grain.
