ABSTRACT
I t is easy to choose a subject for a dis tinguished lecture like th is, before a large and critical audience w ith a wide range of in terests. Y ou need a topic that is abso lu tely contem porary, but som ehow peren nial. I t should survey a broad field, w ith out being superficial or vague. I t should probably bear som e relation to econom ic policy , but of course it m ust have som e serious analytical foundations. I t is nice if the topic has an im portant literature in the past of our subject-a literature w hich you can sum m arize brilliantly in about eleven m inutes-but it better be som e thing in which econom ists are in terested today, and it should appropriately be a subject you have worked on yourself. T he lecture should have som e technical in ter est, because you can’t waffle for a w hole hour to a room full of professionals, but it is hardly the occasion to use a blackboard.
