ABSTRACT
Introduction Recent technical progress has increased the data available for producing seasonal climate forecasts, and the production of actual forecasts has expanded considerably. Seasonal forecasts are of potential significance to farmers and livestock producers, health professionals, economists, and those in the insurance industry (Stem and Easterling, 1999). In regions of the world that depend primarily on rainfed farming, foreknowledge of the likely pattern of precipitation could lead to substantial improvements in risk management strategies, as well as increased profits for larger-scale producers (Akong’a et al., 1988; Buckland, 1997).Climate forecasts have indeed generated great interest in the arid and semi-arid regions of the world, where food-security crises recur with increasing regularity. If climatic conditions could be predicted to a degree that would make it possible to respond effectively in the agricultural sector, forecasts would potentially have a major impact on food security (Gibberd et al., 1996). Yet despite the considerable interest in and enthusiasm for seasonal climate forecasts, there is a considerable gap between the
information that is provided by meteorological services and that which is useful to small-scale farmers (Joubert, 1995; Hulme, 1996; Blench, 1999b). The human and economic costs of poor information can be considerable; therefore strategies for expanding forecast use to small-scale farmers must be carefully developed.This chapter reviews the problems associated with transforming forecasts into practical information for farmers, particularly small-scale farmers. First, rainfall characteristics that are important to farmers are discussed and discrepancies between scientific assessments and farmer evaluations of the forecasts are considered. Second, issues surrounding forecast dissemination are presented. The chapter then considers farmers’ existing strategies for addressing risks, and the implications for future development of forecasts.
