ABSTRACT
Introduction Climate is one of many factors that farmers consider when making production-related decisions. Reliable predictions of expected climate conditions can counter uncertainty and contribute to improved decisionmaking. The efficient application of forecasts depends on the nature and context in which users make decisions, and on various characteristics of the information on which the decisions are based. Although seasonal climate forecasts are relevant to a number of groups in South Africa, farmers represent the largest single group of potential users. In an agricultural environment, seasonal climate forecasts could contribute valuable information for investment decisions about farm buildings, field machinery, crop drying, and irrigation equipment, and for managing flood and drought risks.Limited accuracy and skill in predicting extreme events are amongst the most common impediments to the use of climate predictions in business, operations, and planning decisions (Easterling, 1986; Sonka et al., 1988). Other limiting factors include reliability, spatial resolution, and timeliness of forecasts. Given these impediments, meteorological services are increasingly forced to consider the nature of their products, the value to end-users, and the user profiles of their clients. Privatization of the South African Weather Service1 in 2001 has necessitated a careful assessment of the products offered, a better understanding of their target groups, and improvements in the delivery of services. Feedback from users is thus an
important prerequisite for tailoring climate information to meet specific needs, for distributing information in a timely manner, and for providing support services.This chapter assesses the value of forecasts issued by the South African Weather Service to commercial farmers, as well as possibilities for increasing the value through an expanded product line and improved dissemination. The uptake, use, and information requirements of commercial farmers in South Africa were analyzed through questionnaires sent out after the 1997/98, 1998/99 and 1999/2000 summer rainfall seasons. Results from these surveys show that forecasts are indeed used by those who sought out the information, but that their value would be greater if they were tailored and packaged to meet the specific needs of different farmers.
