ABSTRACT
Introduction Each year, in one part of the world or another, climate extremes focus substantial attention on communities and places at risk to environmental change. Such is the growing concern that several scientific networks are expending great time and resources to assess how the science of global environmental change can be improved, and what can be done to enhance resilience in the face of anticipated changes (e.g., World Resources Institute, 2000; McCarthy et al., 2001; IGBP, 2001). Most of these groups acknowledge that we are living at a time of risk and change that requires collective action.Projected climate changes during the 21st Century, for example, may potentially lead to future large-scale and possibly irreversible changes in the Earth system, resulting in differential impacts at global, national, and sub-national scales (McCarthy et al., 2001). Temperature, precipitation, and other variables are likely to change, with impacts on soil moisture, water availability, pests, etc. In the absence of comprehensive climate change abatement policies, attention has focused increasingly on adaptation strategies aimed at mitigating negative impacts, reducing vulnerability, and increasing resilience. However, because climate change will affect both the mean and variability of different climate parameters, adaptation strategies must focus on addressing both stresses and shocks.1One of the ways to potentially enhance the capacity to cope with environment stresses and shocks may be through the effective use of
seasonal climate forecasts. As we have seen in various chapters in this book, the science of forecasting has advanced to a level where seasonal forecasts can be used with some reliability in certain areas. Indeed, when coupled with other types of climate information, forecasts can contribute to decision-making in a variety of sectors.In this chapter, we summarize some of the key issues surrounding forecast use, including their potential and limitations. We argue that information alone is insufficient for developing successful strategies for coping with climate variability in southern Africa, and we call for a widening of the discourse on seasonal forecasts to include the dynamic context that shapes forecast use in this region. To realize the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa requires policies and actions that enable different types of users to respond appropriately to climate variability and long-term climate change.
