ABSTRACT

Introduction The countries of the Middle East have arrived at a critical crossroad in their transition toward modernization. Anchored in centuries-old political and economic systems (Lapidus, 1996; Sonn, 1996), bitter ethnic rivalries (Goldschmidt, 1998; Michel, 1997), recurrent intra-regional warfare (Mallat, 1998; Massoulie, 1998; Savir, 1998; Sayigh, 1998), and rising fundamentalism (Esposito, 1998; Kramer, 1996; Viorst, 1998), the majority of the region’s countries have remained largely apart from the transformative processes that are shaping development in other world regions (Estes, 1998a; UNDP, 1998; World Bank, 1998). Indeed, the impression exists that no economic or political miracles are occurring in the Middle East and that, to a very great extent, many of the region’s countries are seeking to remain on the sidelines of modem history (Hunter, 1998; Sadiki, 1996; Sick and Potter, 1998; Zoubir, 1996). And, yet, if the countries of the Middle East (ME or also referred to as “the region”) are to flourish in the next century they, too, must deal more effectively with the same social realities that confront leaders of other countries and regions (Galal, 1997; Tessler, 1995).At the outset of the new century, one of the most painful realities confronting the region’s governments is a legacy of inadequate and incomplete social policy initiatives. Apart from the poorest nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, no other major region enters the new century so ill prepared for the demands of increasing globalization as are the nations of the ME. The region’s most urgent needs are reflected in its increasing population pressures (ESCWA, 1996c; Gilbar, 1997); continuing widespread poverty and income inequality (ESCWA, 1995b; UNDP, 1998); environmental degradation (Jabbra and Jabbra, 1997; Sexton, 1992; Starr, 1991); eroding urban infrastructures (ESCWA, 1996f; WRI, 1997); weak social welfare

and other systems of formal social support (ESCWA, 1996b; 1996d; 1996e; USDHHS, 1997); recurrent human rights violations (Amnesty International, 1998; Monshipouri, 1998); as well as the continued marginalization of women (Abu-Lughod, 1998; Lobban, 1998) and other historically disadvantaged population groups (ESCWA, 1995a; UNICEF, 1998). Clearly, the region’s governments must develop more proactive social policies if they are to complete their transformation toward modernization.The research report assesses the social development successes and failures of 22 ME countries over the period 1970-1997. To this end, this paper:• Reports the results obtained through application of the author’s previously developed Index of Social Progress (WISP) to an analysis of the region’s social and economic development between 1970 and 1995 (Estes, 1984; 1988; 1998a);• Identifies the region’s major social development successes and failures for the period 1970-1997, including its major social policy successes and failures;• Contrasts the region’s social development achievements with those of other regions (Estes, 1995; 1996a; 1996b; 1997; 1998b);• Identifies the region’s social development leaders (SLs) and socially least developing countries (SLDCs); and,• Identifies and discusses the major forces that are likely to influence the region’s future development at the outset of the new century.