ABSTRACT
The general perception amongst most project and risk managers that we can somehow control the future is, in my opinion, one of the most ill-conceived in risk management. However, we have made at least two advances in the right direction. First, we now have a better understanding about the likelihood of unpleasant surprises and, more importantly, we are learning how to recognize their occurrence early on and, subsequently, to manage the consequences when they do occur. Risk management is replacing ‘seat-of-the-pants’ and ‘muddling through’ management in many areas. However, it is important to understand how some of the basics of risk management and the relationship of risk with uncertainty have developed over time in order to appreciate the constraint the discipline can represent when considering wicked and messy problems in projects. For a more in depth review the reader is directed to Peter L. Bernstein’s excellent book Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.1
