ABSTRACT
Transport requirements in Germany, as in other western countries, will be characterised in the future, far more than today, by the needs of elderly people. The percentage of people over 60 is likely to increase from 24 per cent in 2001 to 37 per cent in 2050 (Federal Statistical Office Germany, 2003). Hence, transport demands will also change significantly. First, because of fewer business trips, a growing share of leisure travel, both in terms of trips and distances is expected. Second, the increasing availability of driving licenses and cars among seniors will go along with continuing individualisation in choice of transport mode. The share of people with a driving license among 61-80 year olds increased from 37 to 56 per cent between 1991 and 1998. In particular, the share of women in this category grew from 21 to 37 per cent (men from 67 to 82 per cent, Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing, 2000). Currently, this gender differentiation is accelerating. Hence, the demands for leisure mobility demand from elderly people will increase, and there will be changes in demand in the future as well. Several other factors contribute to this:
$ increasing age span after retirement, and the longer lasting health that goes
with longer life expectancy; $ the comparatively high level of affluence, e.g. because of the high portion
of people who own property, which is often already paid for; $ the increasing differentiation of wants and activity patterns that goes along
with the individualisation of lifestyles, which are only partly altered by age because of cohort specific elements (Wahl, 2001). At the present time, however, the mobility of elderly people is regarded as
limited in comparison to other age groups. The percentage of people who leave their home on any given day clearly declines by age. The space for external activities for mobile seniors are comparatively limited to their residential area, and the modal share of walking is much higher than among younger people (based on
the authors’ analysis of KONTIV, 2002). There are multiple causes for these facts, including: the high portion of non-motorised households, the absence of job trips, strong ties to the residential district, and physical impairment among seniors. The share of severely disabled and immobile people strongly rises by age, from 1.6 per cent among children under 14 to 26.1 per cent among the over 65s (Federal Statistical Office Germany, 2000).
