ABSTRACT

Previous chapters have identified a number of factors which influence a project’s approach to uncertainty:

novelty – projects which venture into new territory face greater unknown challenges. complexity – large numbers of co-dependent tasks or events introduce greater potential for uncertainty. affordability – the cost of managing uncertainty has to be balanced against the threat. It may be uneconomic to tackle some areas of uncertainty. structure – the organization of the project into tasks and the choice of delivery approach determine how uncertainty develops through different project stages. capacity – projects have a higher capacity for uncertainty if the consequences of failure are judged to be acceptable. For this to be justified, the rewards of success must also be high. High capacity projects gamble that the benefits of success are worth the considerable uncertainties that must be overcome.