ABSTRACT
In gambling, the ‘odds’ always favour the house or the bookmaker – the more you play, the more you will probably lose. People mistakenly believe that they can somehow ‘beat the odds’. Even when the odds are known, misunderstandings, false ideas and biases interfere with people’s ability to comprehend how the odds always apply (Jarvis and Heidi 1989). Central to The Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that past gambles will somehow influence future punts which leads people to bet more often than they might otherwise (Orkin 1991). While a lucky few gamblers temporarily get ahead, the laws of probability always prevail in the long run. Dealing with tourism crises is analogous to gambling – sometimes gamblers ‘beat the odds’ but in the long run betting usually ends in tragedy. A more rationale strategy is for organisations to seek to reduce the odds in their favour.
