ABSTRACT
Where possible, climate change impact assessment provides a quantitative indication of change in system variables in response to change in climate change variables. This usually necessitates use of a computer-based simulation model. Yet such models are only now becoming available at the sub-UK scale (for example through the 'REGIS' project) and their application is a major (and expensive) research effort. Furthermore, for many socio-economic and environmental systems, quantitative characterisation is difficult or yet not achieved. Alternative approaches to integrated modelling are: a) to extrapolate findings from existing literature where modelling and other analyses have been accomplished; b) to elicit expert opinion; and/or c) to draw upon stakeholder opinion. In this section, we attempt to do this (a) by reviewing the formal literature as referenced in past regional and sectoral climate change studies, and in electronic databases. Steps b) and c) are included here and in more detail in Chapter 6. We have included some 'grey' literature where available to us. We have aimed to draw upon expert and stakeholder opinion through five workshops, and three additional meetings, which were held in April to June 2000 across the Region as discussed in section 6.2. In addition, a number of interviews (face-to-face and by telephone) have been conducted to obtain further sources of information, for example with the commercial and business sector.
