ABSTRACT
Even the simplest business decision involves some risk. Because every project involves some measure of risk, it is the project’s success criteria that often serve as the determining factors for which risks are worth taking and which risks are not. Consider, for example, the decision to drive or fly on a business trip. If cost is the success criterion, then risk determination is simple: compare the costs of flying and driving (compounded by potential inflationary factors). However, another success criterion might be safety, and thus statistics concerning accidents should be evaluated. If punctual arrival is added as a third criterion, then airline on-time statistics, automobile dependability, and road conditions should be evaluated. As other success criteria are added, decision making becomes more complicated and involves more judgment. In the business trip example, increased cost is perhaps an acceptable risk, being late may be unacceptable, and not arriving safely is certainly unacceptable. If project managers do not know what success criteria are driving the project, then they cannot hope to identify the risks that may impede their road to success.
