ABSTRACT
There.is.a.great.chapter.in.Morgan.D..Jones’s.(1998).book.The Thinker’s Toolkit..It.is. called.“Thinking.about.Thinking,”.and.its.primary.thesis.is.that.the.human.mind.is.not. analytical.by.nature..He.explores.the.fallibility.of.human.reasoning.and.suggests.that. the.best.remedy.for.the.mind’s.ineffectiveness.is.to.impose.some.structure.on.the.way. we.think..This.is.what.risk.analysis.does.well..Jones.argues,.persuasively.in.my.opinion,. that.structuring.our.analyses.is.at.odds.with.the.way.our.minds.work.naturally. He.argues.that,.left.to.our.own.devices,.we.often.begin.a.problem.analysis.by.formu-
lating.our.conclusions,.thus.beginning.where.we.ought.to.hope.to.end.our.analysis..With. an.intuitive.preference.for.one.solution,.often.the.first.one.that.seems.satisfactory,.we. tend.to.give.insufficient.consideration.to.alternative.solutions..We.tend.to.confuse.the. gathering.and.analysis.of.data.with.the.process.of.thinking.about.a.problem. Jones.identifies.seven.traits.that.get.in.the.way.of.our.ability.to.analyze.and.solve.
