ABSTRACT

Since the 1970s, the greatest threats to global security have come from both emerging ambitious statesandnationsthatareunableorunwillingtomeetthebasicneedsandaspirationsoftheir people.Subsequently,sincetheendoftheColdWar,theUnitedStatesanditsallieshavebegun anewstabilityandreconstruction(S&R)operationevery18-24months.Duringthetwenty-£rst century,onlyduring1968wassoldierintheUnitedKingdommilitarynotkilledinS&Roperations. Recent history has shown that the armed forces of the most global powers will encounter signi£cantchallengesinS&Refforts-effortsthatseektoestablishasafeandsecureenvironment intheassistedcountry,ensuregovernmentstabilitywithdemocraticpractices,includingfairelections, rule of law, and human rights, to promote the development of a robust economy, and help the assistedcountryinbecomingarespectedmemberoftheinternationalcommunity.Wehavehad some success at affecting the social, governance, and economic fabric of a country. However, as recentlydemonstratedinAfghanistanandIraq,thishascomewithasigni£cantpricetaginterms

Keywords ....................................................................................................................................... 553 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 553 Glossary ......................................................................................................................................... 554 Background and Purpose ............................................................................................................... 554 Challenges ......................................................................................................................................564 Model Development .......................................................................................................................564 Model Results ................................................................................................................................ 570 Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 572 Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 573 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 573 Suggested Future Work .................................................................................................................. 573 References ...................................................................................................................................... 574

of human life and investments. Few will deny that we have struggled to ef£ciently and effectively investourresourcesduringS&Roperations.Defenseagenciesandothermembersofthewhole governmentteaminconcertwithnongovernmentalorganizationsmustlearntobetterinvesttheir resourcesbeforetheoutbreakofhostilitiesaswellasthroughoutthespectrumofcon™ictandpostcon™ictoperations.Moreimportantly,wemustbetterunderstandwhereandwhentoinvestinbuilding host nation capacity; bottom-up small projects versus top-down large projects; and the payoff forinvestmentsingovernance,economic,andsecurityefforts.Thischapterusesformalsystems theorytoaddresssomeoftheseissuesbydescribingtheproblemandthenusingsystemdynamics modelingtounderstandhowtheseinvestmentscanaffectthelong-termlegitimacyandeconomic capacity of a nation of concern.