ABSTRACT

Introduction to simulation modeling The previous chapter described the classic mechanics for using the PERT model as a statistical tool to measure and forecast project outcomes with variable task times. This afforded a view into how variable time estimates can be manipulated into a probability distribution showing estimated project completion times. Since many do not awake with a driving need or want to become a statistician, it is common to shy away from using statistics and specifically statistically oriented tools such as PERT. In project management circles, the use of simulation modeling is increasingly popular as a tool to identify similar information as identified with the PERT tool, but without requiring as much of a background in statistics.