ABSTRACT
People make decisions every day by guessing the likelihood of events. Your assessment of the likelihood of rain today may determine whether you carry an umbrella. Patients with chest pain judge how likely it is that they are having indigestion versus a heart attack, and as a result they make decisions about whether to seek immediate help. Life is full of uncertainty, and in statistics we try to quantify that uncertainty. Statistics requires an understanding of probability, which can be defined as a relative frequency of occurrence. Probability may sound like a scary, highly mathematical term, but in fact we know from decades of teaching statistics that students intuitively know quite a bit about probability without realizing it. We will build upon what you know.
