ABSTRACT
A scenario is an event that could possibly occur under particular circumstances. A scenario can be real or make-believe. Scenario development is used in Project Management (PM) to support organizational eectiveness with respect to competency development and capacity building. Scenarios help organizations to outline strategies and develop solutions. Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future situations by considering alternative outcomes. Scenario analysis can be used to uncover “wild cards.” For example, although analysis indicates that the possibility of a tsunami having an impact on Hawaii is low, the damage inicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest.
