ABSTRACT

The previous chapters have introduced the concepts of discrete event simulation (DES) for health technology assessment (HTA) and the basics of implementation. To consolidate this understanding, it may be helpful to work through a simple, but complete, example. A suitable example which is reasonably straightforward is a model designed for an HTA of a new treatment for a given cancer. The HTA agency wishes to compare the consequences in patients who respond to treatment because the response rates are no different relative to standard therapy. Thus, the patients have been diagnosed with cancer and are currently in remission (the cancer is not active), and the concern is with the duration of that remission. The simulation contains the basic components common to all DES, but there are only two pathways through the model. The entities are the patients with cancer, and there are two main events: recurrence and death. The model starts with patients diagnosed with cancer and ends with the death of each patient.