ABSTRACT
Abstract. The Great Plains are anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. Changes in environmental conditions are likely to influence the population viability of Lesser PrairieChickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) through changes in habitat availability, suitability, and connectivity, with direct effects on nesting and brood-rearing activities. Conservation measures are needed to buffer against potential changes to land use patterns or to severe drought conditions due to climate change, but the necessary information for their development has not been synthesized. Here, we provide the information needed to develop improved conservation strategies for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in the context of climate change. Future management over the next half century will have to meet four challenges: (1) recording and projecting changes to temperature and precipitation for each ecoregion by 2050 and 2080; (2) understanding the potential
impacts of climate change on habitat availability on the Great Plains; (3) developing definitions for annual, seasonal, and extreme weather conditions and determining the effects of climate on the ecology of Lesser Prairie-Chickens; and (4) ranking of priorities for management and research. We place emphasis on the importance of current and future habitat management because our synthesis suggests that localized extirpations are likely due to reoccurring drought conditions. Range-wide extinctions can be avoided if habitat conservation and management is made a priority within the next 15 years. Engaging policy-makers in climate change discussions to set and achieve a goal of decreasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide below 350 parts per million may serve as the most beneficial conservation action.
