ABSTRACT

The topic of predictive modeling has commanded considerable interest within the profession of archaeology for at least a decade and perhaps somewhat more. A number of archaeologists have pursued predictive modeling relentlessly, and a few have even built most of their repertoires and reputations around it. A number of them have insisted that "inductive" predictive modeling, which consists basically of finding cor­ relations between site locations and the proximity of "environmental variables" taken from maps, is a valid pursuit in and of itself, and that anthropological theory or expla­ nation need not figure in predictive modeling efforts. "Inductive" predictive modeling needs at this time to be critically examined, and its basis and results analyzed. My discussion will be structured around seven major mistakes or misconceptions which have (mis )guided "inductive" predictive modeling.