* * * * * * ** * * * * * * * * * * *** * * * * * *

It will be noticed that, in Fig. 2.1, 63 of the SOOO-year sequences have 'fifty-year events' in them. This graphically illustrates the fact that there is an approximately 63% chance ((1 - 0.02)50 = 0.364), in any 50-year period, of the 'fifty-year event' occurring in that period.