ABSTRACT
In the last 30 years, practical probabilistic and reliability methods have been developed to help engineers tackle the analysis, quantification, monitoring and assessment of structural risks, undertake sensitivity analysis of inherent uncertainties and make rational decisions about the performance of structures over their working life. These tasks may be related to a specific structure, a group of similar structures or a larger population of structures built to a code of practice. Within a time framework, the structures may be at the design stage, under construction or in actual use. Hence, the methods may be required to back calculate performance and compare with earlier perceptions and observations, or to predict future performance in order to plan a suitable course of action for continued safety and functionality. Clearly, uncertainty is present through various sources and can propagate through the decision making process, thus rendering probabilistic methods a particularly useful tool.
