ABSTRACT
BAYESIAN ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL RISK UNDER FIRE DESIGN SITUATION Structural risk in fire
H. GULVANESSIAN Building Research Establishment, Garston, Watford, UK M. HOLICKY Klokner Institute, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic
Abstract Probabilistic concepts of fire safety analysis are based on assumed proportion of fully developed fires of all started fires, i.e. on probability of fire flashover provided that fire started. Bayesian network is used to analyse risk of structures under fire design situation. Typical nodes of the network include fire start, detection, tampering, sprinklers, smoke detection, fire brigade, fire flashover, and structural failure. Performance of a fire protective system is characterised by appropriate causal links and input conditional probabilities related to states of nodes. The decision nodes and utility nodes are implemented to enable structural risk assessment under fire design situation. It appears that Bayesian networks provide an effective tool to analyse fire protective systems and to make assessment of structural risk. Keywords: Bayesian network, decision theory, fire design, risk analysis, structural safety.
