ABSTRACT
Empirical and process-based models have been developed for studying plant succession and growth at scales varying from the individual species to the region. A knowledge-based system (KBS) approach is presented that synthesizes spatially explicit environmental data with knowledge on vegetation dynamics and succession. The KBS controls the organization and selection of GIS functions for running the succession model. Metadata on spatial data and procedural knowledge are maintained as inputs to system guidance and system auditing. Vegetation survey data, compiled and represented at resolutions compatible with ground, aerial photograph and satellite image platforms, are synthesized for input to process-based models of vegetation change. Contextual measures of the distribution of semi-natural vegetation with respect to the ecological environment are used within the assessment of likely changes in its boundaries. The adjacency of land cover types and the rate of transition between vegetation types at the boundary are inputs to a simulation of the succession model. From this, an assessment of the rapidity of change and the possible complexity of changes in land cover can be made as well as a prediction of future land cover for an area.
