ABSTRACT

This book is primarily intended as a discursive examination of the process of uncertainty estimation in environmental modelling as it is done now and how it might be done more “properly”, and perhaps more “realistically”, in the future. It is intended to be a book that might be useful to students, graduate students, and practitioners interested in increasing their understanding of different methods of uncertainty estimation and how that understanding might be used in decision-making. It is written with both users of environmental models and decision makers in mind; particularly those who have not much previous exposure to uncertainty concepts. It can be read without reference to all the detailed technical material in the Boxes that follow the different chapters. It cannot, of course, be a comprehensive account of uncertainty estimation in all the different disciplines that comprise environmental science. It is intended to be much more a first guide on how to think about the modelling process and choose uncertainty estimation and decision making techniques appropriate to a particular application. It cannot go into all the details and software available for each technique but references are provided to allow the reader to explore further.