ABSTRACT

Uncertainty is perhaps the most adequate term to define the outlook of the Latin-American Cement Industry. In fact since 1980, the year in which the region started to show the first results of the world crisis of 1975, it

seems that Latin America is not able to iniciate a reasonable period of development. The next table shows the average yearly real growth of the major countries of the region during the last decade:

The main reasons for such a poor performance fluctuates for the different countries, but nevertheless some of them are common to most Latin-American countries:

1. A very large debt, combined with a steady high net cost of the money. 2. The reduction of prices of basic products, and the dollar revaluation weakening the trade balance. 3. The high public deficit and inflation. 4. The low efficiency of many of the investments made, reaching a ratio of incremental investment to

incremental production as high as 11. 5. The protection barriers set up by the industrial countries. These barriers are costing Latin America

more than 8 billion dollars per year. 6. Exit of capitals due to artificial low exchange rates. Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela, with figures of

65, 48 and 135 respectively, as percentage of outgoing capitals over incoming capitals, are examples of it. The net result for Latin-American countries is an unbearable high level of debt, which is seriously

restraining their development:

2. CEMENT SECTOR. SITUATION AND FUTURE

Cement production in Latin America reached about 85.2 million metric tons in 1988, that is 300,000 MT less than 1987’s figure. Apparent consumption was close to 78.9 millions, slightly under 1987’s, that reached 79 milliom, the record figure for the zone. The main exporters were Mexico (4.5 million MT), Colombia (1 million MT), and Venezuela (0.8 million MT). Most of these cement exports had U.S.A.’s ports as destination. Per capita consumption was 181 Kg., while the previous year it had been 186 KG. The per capita figure drop has been more important than the total consumption decrease due to the high population growth rate (2.4% as average).