ABSTRACT
The intensification of the hydrologic cycle and extreme hydrologic events by natural factors and human activities call for great concern at the global scale (Oki and Kanae, 2006). The Sahel has been receiving attention because it suffered from persistent and severe drought conditions from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s, which dramatically impacted resident communities that depend on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. In the mid-1990s, the rainfall returned to near-or above-normal amounts (relative to the 1941-2012 period). However, the recent period (2005-2012) experienced three food crises triggered by severe drought linked to a recurrent lack of precipitation in this region (Boyd et al., 2013). More accurate prediction of West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation now, and under climate change, is required to better direct humanitarian aid responses as well as adaptive planning measures.
