ABSTRACT

While no one can predict the future with certainty, a primary function of the Intelligence Community (IC) is to “look ahead” to forecast potential threats and challenges. This includes identifying potential “black swan” events-those that are unlikely but that could have a significant impact on the world, such as a “cyber Pearl Harbor.” In this chapter, four potential “drivers” of future change are discussed: technology, demographics, economic trends, and politics/governance. Through the National Intelligence Council, the IC publishes Global Trends, a series of publications that outlines possible and probable future events. The most recent addition to the series, titled Paradox of Progress, underscores the reality that the world of tomorrow will be filled with both opportunity and peril—it is up to humankind to navigate the preferred path.