Supporting smallholders in improving wheat cultivation Institute of Agricultural Botany (NIAB), UK; Johnson Kamwaga, Food Crops Research Centre – Njoro, Kenya; Peter Njau, Highlands Agri-consult Services Ltd, Kenya; Terry van Gevelt, University of Cambridge, UK; and Claudia Canales and Max Marcheselli, the Malaysian Commonwealth Studies Centre (MCSC) and the Cambridge Malaysian Education and Development Trust (CMEDT), UK

Consumption of wheat products is increasing rapidly among both rural and urban communities in low-income and middle-income countries (World Bank, 2016), with increases of between 19 and 38% expected in China, India, Pakistan, West Asia, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa by 2023 (relative to 2011-13 levels; OECD and FAO, 2014; Valin et al., 2014; Mason et al., 2015; Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012). The main drivers for this rapid increase have been cited as improved household incomes, rising total population and changes in diets (Mason, Jayne and Shiferaw, 2015). The rate of increase in wheat demand is much higher than that for maize and rice, the other staple cereals, and wheat is now an important cereal, supplying a fifth of dietary protein and calories globally (Shiferaw et al., 2013). Over the same period (2013-23), growth in wheat production

is expected to be about 12% in developing countries (OECD and FAO, 2014). This is mainly because wheat yields are generally lower (compared to the global average) in most developing countries (Fig. 1). In addition, developing world wheat acreage is expected to grow by less than 2% between 2013 and 2023 (Fischer, Byerlee and Edmeades, 2014; OECD and FAO, 2014; FAOSTAT, 2016). Rising wheat demand in these countries will therefore create large internal deficits.