ABSTRACT

This chapter considers whether crime prevention could be deployed with greater accuracy than conventional mapping approaches allow. Predicting future patterns requires an understanding of the sequenced way in which things typically occur, which can be summarised as a set of principles and operationalised. The chapter focuses on domestic burglary, but support for the generalisability of the approach taken is evidenced at its end. The prospective map is most accurate at predicting where crime will occur for the three days that follow the generation of the risk surface, after which the accuracy of the map declines. Working with academics with considerable expertise in crime mapping, geography and offender behaviour should also enable the development of still more accurate models for predicting future risk. The chapter also focuses on how the findings can be used to develop new mapping techniques for predicting when and where crime will happen next.