ABSTRACT

The Art and Science of Making Up Your Mind presents basic decision-making principles and tools to help the reader respond efficiently and wisely to everyday dilemmas.

Although most decisions are made informally (whether intuitively without deliberate thought, or based on careful reflection), over the centuries people have tried to develop systematic, scientific and structured ways in which to make decisions. Using qualitative counterparts to quantitative models, Rex Brown takes the reader through the basics, like ‘what is a decision’ and then considers a wide variety of real-life decisions, explaining how the best judgments can be made using logical principles. 

Combining multiple evaluations of the same judgment ("hybrid judgment") and exploring innovative analytical concepts (such as "ideal judgment"), this book explores and analyzes the skills needed to master the basics of non-mathematical decision making, and what should be done, using real world illustrations of decision methods.

The book is an ideal companion for students of Thinking, Reasoning and Decision-Making, and also for anyone wanting to understand how to make better judgments in their everyday lives.

chapter Chapter 1|8 pages

Introduction

chapter Chapter 2|15 pages

Decision making

chapter Chapter 3|4 pages

Term project: Evaluating a policy proposal

chapter Chapter 4|14 pages

Qualitative decision aids

chapter Chapter 5|9 pages

Hip surgery case

chapter Chapter 6|7 pages

Quantitative ADT modeling

chapter Chapter 8|3 pages

Using ADT models

chapter Chapter 9|6 pages

A civic case: Voting for president

chapter Chapter 10|7 pages

Information value case: Life-saving diagnosis

chapter Chapter 12|3 pages

Epilogue — What next?