ABSTRACT
According to FAO estimates, global food grain production must increase from the present level of 2 billion tons to 3 billion tons by 2030. These estimates are based on three factors:
Growing population – The world’s population is currently 6.2 billion and is expected to reach 8.0 billion by 2030. More than 80 per cent of this increase will occur in developing countries. By 2050, 90 per cent of the world’s population is expected to live in the countries of the South.
Poverty alleviation – At present, 1 billion people are food insecure and somehow survive on an income of less than one dollar a day. Another 2 billion have an income level of less then two dollars a day. As the poverty alleviation programmes succeed, the purchasing power of these people will increase and demand for food grains will go up.
Changing food habits – The most important factor that influences per capita consumption of staple grains is the level of income of consumers. At low levels of income, staple foods such as starchy roots, rice, wheat and coarse grains provide the cheapest source of energy. As income increases, consumers shift from lowquality to high-quality foods such as fruits, eggs, milk and meat, and consumption of cereals goes down. The FAO data show that per capita cereal consumption has started to decline in mid-income countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. China and Indonesia are reaching the threshold of peak cereal consumption. Thus, projecting the growth in demand for cereals, we must consider their indirect demand as livestock feed. Asia as a whole has emerged as a major consumer of livestock products (Brown et al, 1998). It takes 2, 4 and 8kgs of grain to produce 1kg of poultry, pork and beef respectively. This increase in demand for livestock products implies a rapid growth in demand for cereal grains as livestock food.
