ABSTRACT
Northeast District, Bobirwa Sub-District and Kgatleng District 4.2 Mean annual rainfall over three stations in the Limpopo basin 74
area of Botswana: Francistown, Northeast District; Bobonong, Bobirwa Sub-District; and Mochudi, Kgatleng District
5.1 Contour bunds for water harvesting and tree planting in Arbaat 97 6.1 Map showing the Lake Victoria highland malaria region and 112
the studied villages 6.2 Map showing the Lake Victoria cholera region and the studied 113
villages 6.3 Total death toll due to malaria for Ndolage Hospital, Tanzania, 115
in 2001 6.4 Total death toll due to malaria for Rubya Hospital, Tanzania, 116
in 2001 6.5 Sources of information on consequence of cholera 122 7.1 Analytical framework for assessing economic feasibility of 134
climate change adaptation 8.1 Communities surveyed in northern Nigeria 150 8.2 Number of households classified as very vulnerable, vulnerable 153
and less vulnerable in the hamlets of Zangon Buhari, Dabai and Takwikwi
8.3 Reasons for food storage 156 8.4 Reasons for planting early maturing crop varieties 156 8.5 Reasons for planting high yield crop varieties 156 8.6 Household vulnerability levels for the five livelihood capitals 157 8.7 Farmers’ willingness to change practices to reduce vulnerability 160
to drought 10.1 Wheat yield and spring precipitation in Tunisia, 1961-2000 184 10.2 Simulated changes in irrigated wheat yields and 191
evapotranspiration under different climate conditions for (a) water conservation measures and (b) variations in sowing dates
10.3 Simulated changes in rain-fed wheat yields for (a) different 193 rainfall scenarios and (b) variations in sowing dates
12.1 Framework for multi-criteria evaluation of climate change 215 adaptation options
12.2 Location of the Heihe river basin 218 13.1 Study sites in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam 229 14.1 Location of the Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed 249 14.2 Land use map of the Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed 249 14.3 Summary of effects of adaptation strategies in one sector on 262
other sectors 15.1 Observed rainfall anomalies for Navua, 1960-2003 268 15.2 Maximum daily rainfall during March and April, 1960-2003 269 16.1 Annual variability of the reported cases of dengue and the rate 280
of change (increase or decrease from previous year) for the Caribbean
16.2 Monthly variability of the reported dengue cases, rainfall and 282 temperature from 1996 to 2003 in Trinidad and Tobago
16.3 Schematic of a possible early warning system 292 17.1 Linear trends of annual precipitation (mm/year), 1959-2003 298 17.2 Isohyets in mm: 1950-1969 (solid line) and 1980-1999 299
(dashed line) 17.3 Percentage change in the rate between standard deviation and 300
mean value in the 1980-1999 period with respect to 1950-1969 17.4 Annual precipitation in Chile: La Serena (29.9ºS, 71.2ºW) (left); 305
Puerto Montt (41.4ºS, 73.1ºW) (right) 17.5 Mean annual streamflow (m3/s) of a representative river of the 306
Cuyo region, Los Patos river, 1900-2000 17.6 Mean annual streamflow (m3/s) of rivers of the Comahue region, 307
1900-2000; note that the Negro river starts at the junction of the Limay and Neuquén rivers
17.7 Number of events with precipitation greater than 100mm in 308 no more than two days in periods of four years
17.8 Annual frequency of cases with precipitation over 150mm in 309 less than two days (left); for the same threshold (150mm), the ratio of the annual frequencies between the 1983-2002 and 1959-1978 periods (right)
17.9 The Plata river estuary 310 19.1 Study area and study sites 334 19.2 Changes in monthly precipitation (%) projected by HadCM3 336
under SRES A2 and B2 for 2020, 2050 and 2080 19.3 Changes in irrigated maize and soybean yields (%) under 338
different scenarios and CO2 concentrations 19.4 Changes in rain-fed maize and soybean yields (%) under 339
different scenarios and CO2 concentrations
19.5 Changes in the duration of planting-flowering (P-F) and 340 flowering-maturity (F-M) periods, expressed as mean values for the six sites, for maize and soybean crops under different SRES scenarios and time periods
19.6 Maize: Yield changes (%) for different planting dates 342 (ac = current, –20 and –40 days) in the six sites under different scenarios (A2 in grey, B2 in black for 2020, 2050 and 2080) and CO2 concentrations
19.7 Soybean: Yield changes (%) for different planting dates (ac = 343 current, ± 15, 30 days) in the six sites under different scenarios (A2 in grey, B2 in black for 2020, 2050 and 2080) and CO2 concentrations
19.8 Adaptation measures for maize: Yield change (%) under 344 optimal planting dates/nitrogen rates and supplementary irrigation for the six sites without considering CO2 effects
19.9 Adaptation measures for soybean: Yield changes (%) under 344 optimal planting dates and supplementary irrigation for the six sites without considering CO2 effects
20.1 Vulnerability and adaptation framework 355 20.2 River flow corridors and fronts of the Río de la Plata 357 20.3 Long-term gross income of fishermen (local currency-1999) 358 20.4 Unfavourable days for fishing activity on a monthly basis from 362
October 2000 to March 2003, based on a lower threshold of 8m/s wind speed
2.1 The area as a percentage conserved in southern African 31 countries in IUCN reserves (IUCN classes I-V), IUCN sustainable resource use areas (IUCN class VI), and other non-IUCN conservation areas
2.2 The amount of conservation per ecoregion 32 2.3 Extent of conservation versus ‘need’ for conservation 32 2.4 Relative financial costs compared to the advantages and 36
disadvantages of differing adaptation options 3.1 Framework for estimating benefits and costs associated with 57
climate change and climate change adaptation 3.2 Net returns to water and optimal storage capacity of the 61
Berg River Dam 3.3 Adapting to development pressure and climate change under 64
the existing water allocation system: net returns to water (present value, R billion)
3.4 Adapting to development pressure and climate change by 66 switching to water markets and adding storage capacity: net returns to water (present value, R billion)
4.1 Examples of government policies relevant to vulnerability and 78 drought impact reduction
5.1 Adaptation measures in Gireighikh Rural Council, Bara Province, 94 North Kordofan State
5.2 Adaptation measures in Arbaat, Red Sea State 98 5.3 Adaptation measures in El Fashir Rural Council, 102
North Darfur State 6.1 Percentage responses of how malaria is treated at the 118
household level by people with different levels of education 6.2 Percentage of reasons/explanations for not treating/boiling 120
drinking water in Chato village 6.3 Cholera control strategies suggested by stakeholders 123 7.1 Average millet yields (kg/ha) and variability (CV) for current 138
and future climates with business-as-usual and adaptive management strategies
7.2 Climate change damages and costs and benefits of fertilization – 141 Average annual values in millions of US dollars
7.3 Climate change damages and costs and benefits of irrigation – 142 Average annual values in millions of US dollars
8.1 Indices and weights for vulnerability assessment in northern 152 Nigeria
8.2 Respondents’ coping strategies 154 9.1 Skill assessment of quint forecast categories 171 9.2 Skill assessment of tercile forecast categories 171 9.3 Organizational skill performance assessment of the June, July, 172
August and September annual rainfall totals 9.4 Regional disparities in forecasting skill 173 10.1 Average cereal yields during wet and dry years at four sites in 184
the Kairouan region of Tunisia 10.2 Assumptions for simulations of irrigated wheat production in 189
the Nile Delta region 10.3 Results of simulations for irrigated wheat in the Nile Delta 190
region (percentage changes are relative to current climate) 11.1 Evaluation of adaptation options 203 12.1 Indicators used to evaluate adaptation options in the 217
Heihe river basin 12.2 Water availability, water withdrawals and water withdrawal 219
ratio in the Heihe river region, 1991-2000 12.3 Water shortage/surplus in Heihe river basin under climate 220
change to 2040 12.4 Example of AHP comparison table 224 12.5 Overall rank and score of adaptation options for the 224
Heihe region 13.1 Multiple orders of climate impacts on rain-fed farms in the 230
lower Mekong region 13.2 Household-level on-farm measures for managing climate risks 232 13.3 Household-level off-farm measures for managing climate risks 235
13.4 Community-level measures for managing climate risks 237 13.5 National-level measures for managing climate risks 239 14.1 Adaptation options for agriculture and forestry by land use 253
category 14.2 Options for adapting water resource supply and use in response 254
to climate variations 14.3 Adaptation strategies of different institutional organizations 255 14.4 Cross-sectoral impacts of forest/agriculture sector adaptations 256
on other sectors 14.5 Cross-sectoral impacts of water sector adaptations on other 258
sectors 14.6 Cross-sectoral impacts of adaptations by institutions on other 259
sectors 14.7 Adaptation strategies common to multiple sectors 260 15.1 Flood extent, duration and rainfall in five recalled flooding 267
episodes in Navua 16.1 Distribution of epidemic peaks among ENSO phases, 1980-2001 283 16.2 Socio-economic characteristics of three communities in Western 288
Jamaica and survey sample size 16.3 Adaptation strategies matrix 288 17.1 Cultivated areas 299 17.2 Density of rural roads in six provinces 301 17.3 Major monthly streamflow anomalies (m3/s) at Corrientes 303 17.4 Largest daily discharge anomalies (larger than 3 standard 303
deviations) of the Uruguay river at the Salto gauging station, 1951-2000
17.5 Programmes funded by international banks to ameliorate and 304 prevent damages from floods in Argentina
18.1 Farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics 318 18.2 Synthesis of adaptation options 325 19.1 Projected changes in mean temperature (ºC) for the warm 335
semester (October-March) according to HadCM3 under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080
19.2 Length (days) of planting-flowering (P-F) and flowering-341 maturity (F-M) periods for maize at current planting date and 20 and 40 days earlier under SRES A2 scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080
20.1 Freshwater inflow to the Río de la Plata from the River Uruguay 357 and total
20.2 Fishing activity, capture and income: Comparison between 365 a good year (1988-89), long-term average and model results for a low-typical year (1), a bad year (2) and results with change in fishing behaviour (3)
20.3 Type II adaptation measures by scale of implementation and 366 objectives
