chapter  1
7 Pages


This article describes the analysis of LCS scenarios using the UK MARKAL-Macro (M-M) model, a hybrid technology optimization model linked to a neoclassical growth model (see Section 2). This model was used for underpinning analysis on long-term carbon reductions in the 2007 UK Energy White Paper (DTI, 2007). However, as this is a national model, the role of international drivers is crucial for the quantification of the costs and pathways of a future LCS. Section 3 describes a set of key international drivers and how these are quantified within the UK-M-M analysis. Section 4 details the implementation of a set of scenarios run for this article, based on the common runs for all modelling papers under this LCS project:

§§ Baseline: where UK energy use and C 0 2 emissions occur in the absence of new climate policy m Carbon price: where a carbon tax (in US$ per tonnes of carbon dioxide (tC 02)) is applied,

starting at $10/tC 02 in 2020 and rising exponentially to $100/tC 02 in 2050 ■ Carbon-plus: under a framework of a global target of a 50% reduction in C 0 2 emissions, the

UK leads on international mitigation efforts and achieves a domestic C 0 2 reduction of 80% by 2050

ü Sensitivity runs on Carbon-plus, based on the role of international drivers (see Section 3).