ABSTRACT
During the dark days of the 20th century's Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote from experience as a City trader, insurance executive and policy-maker about the odds stacked against the long-term investor. ‘It is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion’, Keynes wrote, adding that ‘if he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much mercy. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally’ (Keynes, 1978).
