ABSTRACT
THATINmUENCETHESECHANGESARECONTEXTUALDIFFUSEANDCANONLYBEUNDERSTOOD OVERTHELONGERTERM)TISATYPICALEXAMPLEOFWHAT%MERYAND4RIST HAVE CALLEDTURBULENCESEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUME #OPINGWITHTURBULENCEASKSFOR ANEWPLANNINGSTRATEGYTOANTICIPATEFUTUREDEVELOPMENTSWHILEATTHESAMETIME RETAININGAmEXIBLESTANCETOCOPEWITHIRREDUCIBLEUNCERTAINTY 4HEURGEFORANEWPLANNINGPARADIGMISNOTHINGNEW3PATIALDESIGNMETHODS
TENDTORESPONDTOTHECHANGINGREQUIREMENTSOFSOCIETY4HEREQUIREMENTSOF TODAYINVOLVEANENVIRONMENTOFINCREASINGCONTEXTUALCOMPLEXITYINWHICHIT HASBECOMEDIFlCULTTODElNETHEINTERVENTIONSNEEDEDTOACHIEVEGOALS7ITHTHE TRADITIONALANDOFTENSINGLE DISCIPLINEDESIGNMETHODSAVAILABLEWEAREUNABLETO GIVESUFlCIENTANSWERSTOCHALLENGESOFLONGERTIMEFRAMESANDHIGHERCOMPLEXITY ASSOCIATEDWITHTURBULENCE#LIMATECHANGEISANEXAMPLEOFTHIS4HISCHAPTER DISCUSSESTHEQUESTIONOFHOWTODElNEORINVENTANEWDESIGNAPPROACHABLETO MEETTHESECURRENTNEEDS)WILLILLUSTRATECONCLUSIONSREACHEDBYREFERRINGTOACASE STUDYOFTACKLINGTHEISSUEINTHEPROVINCEOF'RONINGEN4HE.ETHERLANDS
4HEHISTORYOFSPATIALPLANNINGIN4HE.ETHERLANDSSHOWSACLEARSEQUENCEOF VIEWSEMERGINGINRESPONSETOTHENEEDSOFTHETIMES%MDEN /VERTIME
PLANNINGPARADIGMSCHANGESTEEREDBYTRENDSANDDEVELOPMENTSINSOCIETY4HIS SECTIONEXPLORES THECONNECTIONBETWEENSPATIALDESIGNANDTHEDYNAMICSOF THE@ENVIRONMENTFOLLOWING%MERYAND4RISTS CATEGORIZATIONOFCAUSAL TEXTUREANDTHEISSUESINVOLVEDINPREDICTINGFUTURECONNECTIONS4HEDIFFERENTERAS DESCRIBEDHEREAREPLACEDINTHE$UTCHCONTEXTOFDESIGN4HEYDONOTREPRESENT ERASINOTHERCOUNTRIESANDOROTHERTIMES&ORINSTANCEONECANIMAGINETHAT DEVELOPMENTSIN&RANCEOR.ORTH!MERICASHOWTHESAMESEQUENCEBUTAREDUE TOSPECIlCLOCALSITUATIONSANDHISTORYPLACEDINDIFFERENTTIMEFRAMES4HEDIFFERENT ERASAREDISTINGUISHEDBYTHEIRVARYINGTEXTURES!NDTHESETEXTURESCREATEDIFFERENT CONTEXTSFORDESIGNERSWHOWISHTOADOPTTHEAPPROPRIATEDESIGNPARADIGMSTO DEALWITHTHEDIFFERENTTEXTURES
Placid, randomized planning: End of the 19th to the beginning of the 20th century
!PLACIDRANDOMIZEDENVIRONMENTISDElNEDASFOLLOWS%MERYAND4RIST @4HESIMPLESTTYPEOFENVIRONMENTALTEXTUREISTHATINWHICHGOALSANDNOXIANTS hGOODSvANDhBADSv ARE RELATIVELYUNCHANGING IN THEMSELVESANDRANDOMLY DISTRIBUTEDSEE#HAPTER !TTHEENDOFTHETHCENTURYSPATIALDESIGNTENDED TOBEASOMEWHATRANDOMAFFAIRINWHICHSOMECENTRESOFEXCELLENCECOULDBE DISTINGUISHEDBUTWHEREMOSTOFTHETIMETHEREWASNODESIGNATALL.EUWIRTH )NORDERTOTACKLEINCREASINGLYSEVEREPROBLEMSINCITIESEGPOLLUTION ANDDISEASE THEURGETOMAKELAWSANDREGULATIONS(OUSING,AW %DUCATION,AW INCREASED3OCIETYONTHEWHOLEWASPREPAREDTOACCEPTTHATAN ELITEMADETHEDECISIONSFORTHERESTOFTHEPOPULATION "YTHEENDOFTHETHCENTURYMODERNCOMPREHENSIVEPLANNINGEMERGEDFOR
THElRSTTIMEIN4HE.ETHERLANDS!PARTFROMCOMPREHENSIVEPLANNINGOFTRADE ANDMILITARYCITIESSUCHAS%LBURGENDTHCENTURY AND"OURTANGELATETH CENTURY CENTRALIZEDANDCOMPREHENSIVESPATIALDESIGNWASUNCOMMON 4HE"ARONIELAANIN"REDASEE&IGURE ISANEARLYEXAMPLEOFMODERN
COMPREHENSIVEPLANNING THEDEVELOPMENTOF AWHOLE STREET AS ONEPROJECT $UIJGHUISEN3ECTIE$ 4HEDEVELOPMENTOFTHE6ONDELPARKIN !MSTERDAMANDITSSURROUNDINGSPRESENTSSTRONGSIMILARITIESWITHTHISDEVELOPMENT $URINGTHISPERIODTHElRSTURBANDESIGNSFORENTIRECITIESWEREINITIATED4HECITY OF4HE(AGUEHIRED"ERLAGEASITS@CITYARCHITECT(EDREWUPACAREFULLYDESIGNED URBANPATTERNFORTHEENTIRECITY4HEDESIGNWASEQUALLYANDRANDOMLYSPREADOVER THEAREABOUNDEDBYTHECITYBORDERSWITHOUTSPECIlCCLUSTERING)TMARKSTHEEND OFANERAANDATRANSFORMATIONTOTHENEXTPHASEINDESIGN
Placid, clustered planning: 1920 to 1950
#HAPTERGIVES THE FOLLOWINGDElNITIONOFAPLACID CLUSTEREDENVIRONMENT %MERYAND4RIST @WHICHCANBECHARACTERIZEDINTERMSOFCLUSTERINGGOALS
ANDNOXIANTSARENOTRANDOMLYDISTRIBUTEDBUTHANGTOGETHERINCERTAINWAYS 4HISCAUSALTEXTUREBECAMERELEVANTWHENPLANNINGANDDESIGNSTARTEDTOGAIN IMPORTANCE4HE'ARDEN#ITIES-OVEMENT(OWARD INITIATEDTHINKING ABOUTHOWANDWHEREPEOPLESHOULDLIVE#ENTRALLYPLANNEDVILLAGESWEREPLACED INCONCENTRATEDFULLYSELF CONTAINEDAREASWHEREHEALTHANDWELL BEINGPLAYEDA MAJORROLESEE&IGURE INDESIGNSBASEDONTHEBESTAVAILABLETECHNIQUES4HE DESIGNPRINCIPLEADOPTEDWASTOCONSTRUCTANEND STATEIMAGEOFAHARMONIOUS ANDHEALTHYSOCIETYOFTHEFUTURE!PLACIDCAUSALTEXTUREENSUREDTHEBESTLOCATION FORURBANDEVELOPMENTS
Disturbed-reactive planning: 1960 to 1970
!DISTURBEDnREACTIVEENVIRONMENTISDElNEDASFOLLOWS%MERYAND4RIST @ITISANENVIRONMENTINWHICHTHEREISMORETHANONEORGANIZATIONOFTHESAME KINDx4HEEXISTENCEOFANUMBEROFSIMILARORGANIZATIONSNOWBECOMESTHE DOMINANTCHARACTERISTIC!T THIS STAGEOF THEHISTORYOF SPATIALPLANNINGAN
INCREASINGNUMBEROF INmUENTIAL STAKEHOLDERS ACTIONGROUPS SOCIALHOUSING CORPORATIONSETC COMMENTCRITICALLYONTHECENTRALLYPLANNEDFUTURE$URING THEEARLYSTAGESOFTHISPERIODASTRONGBELIEFINTECHNOCRATICEND STATEIMAGESOF AWEALTHYFUTUREEVOLVEDINTHEFORMOFHIGH RISEBUILDINGPARKSWITHSEPARATION OFFUNCTIONS4HE)NTERNATIONAL#ONGRESSOF-ODERN!RCHITECTURE#)!- nAN INTERNATIONALCITYPLANNERSMOVEMENTWHICHDATESBACKTOTHESnBECAME THE LEADINGVOICE IN THEWORLDOFURBANDESIGNERSANDPLANNERS2EBUILDING (OLLANDAFTER7ORLD7AR))CAMETOACLIMAXINTHEDEVELOPMENTOFTHE"IJLMER ANEXTENSIONOF!MSTERDAMWHEREEXTREMESEPARATIONOFFUNCTIONSISDESIGNEDIN SEE&IGURE "UTANEWDEVELOPMENTSAWPEOPLESTARTINGTOREACTAGAINSTTHESE DESIGNSWHICHFOUNDLESSANDLESSSUPPORTINTHECOMMUNITY)NRESPONSETOTHAT PLANNERSSTARTEDTOBUILDSCENARIOSTOWIDENTHEBANDWIDTHOFFUTUREPREDICTIONS )NTHEENDHOWEVERTHEPLANNINGSYSTEMSTILLCOMESUPWITHAlXEDDESIGNFOR
THEFUTURENOTPAYINGSUFlCIENTATTENTIONTOFUTURENEEDSAIMSANDAMBITIONS INSOCIETY
Turbulent planning: 1980 to 1990
!TURBULENTENVIRONMENTISDElNEDASFOLLOWS%MERYAND4RIST @4HE DYNAMICPROPERTIESARISENOTSIMPLY FROMTHE INTERACTIONOF THECOMPONENT ORGANIZATIONSBUTALSO FROMTHEGROUND ITSELF4HEhGROUNDv IS INMOTION $URINGTHISPERIODEVERYTHINGWASINASTATEOFmUXASACONSEQUENCEOFTHE DEMOCRATIZATIONOFTHEURBANDESIGNPROCESS%VERYONEWITHANINTERESTOREVEN WITHOUTPARTICIPATEDINDELIBERATIONSABOUTTHEFUTURE0ARTIESTALKEDENDLESSLY ABOUTDETAILSDOWNTOTHECOLOUROFTHEmOWERSINTHENEARESTmOWERPOT4HE AIMOFDESIGNWASTOSHAPEANENVIRONMENTASCLOSEASPOSSIBLETOTHEWISHES OFTHEPEOPLE4HISLEDTOWHATBECAMEKNOWNASTHE"LOEMKOOLCAULImOWER NEIGHBOURHOODSDESIGNSWITH ENDLESSLYWINDING ROADS INWHICH THE STREETS AREINTENDEDTOBEPLACESINWHICHTOLIVEANDPLAYINSTEADOFTRAFlCCONDUITS 4HISBOTTOM UPPROCESSGIVESPRIORITYTOMAKINGEVERYONEHAPPYOVERGIVING AREASADISTINCTIDENTITY0OLITICSBECAMEATALKINGMACHINEAIMEDATPRODUCING
COMPROMISES4HEDESIGNENVIRONMENTWASCHARACTERIZEDBYALOTOFUNCERTAINTY BASEDONCONTRASTINGOPINIONSWHICHNEEDEDTOBETAKENSERIOUSLYBUTCOULDNOT ALWAYSBEUNITED
Vortical planning: 1990 to 2010
4HEVORTICALENVIRONMENTISDElNEDASFOLLOWS"ABÓROG€LU @THEPREVALENCE OFSTALEMATEPOLARIZATIONANDMONOTHEMATICDOGMATISMxLEADSTOAFROZENOR ACLINCHEDORDEROFCONNECTEDNESSASWELLASTHATOFUNEVENLYDYNAMICTURBULENT CONDITIONS.OWADAYSSEVEREPROBLEMSCHARACTERIZEDBYTHEIRUNPRECEDENTED COMPLEXCONTEXTUALNATURESUCHASCLIMATECHANGECALLFORIMMEDIATEACTIONIN ORDERTOSOLVEPROBLEMSOCCURRINGINTHEFAR FUTURE(OWEVEREXISTINGPOLITICAL STRUCTURESANDDECISION MAKINGSYSTEMSlNDTHEIRORIGININEARLIERMOREPLACID ENVIRONMENTS4HEHABITTHATSYSTEMSHAVEOFREPRODUCINGTHEMSELVESTHEREPETITIVE PATTERNSOFWORKINGMETHODSACCEPTEDPOLITICALBEHAVIOURANDPOWER BASED SYSTEMSAREILLPREPAREDTORESPONDTOTHENEEDSOFTHENEWTURBULENTENVIRONMENT )TSEEMSALMOSTIMPOSSIBLETOSTEPOUTOFTHISCLUSTEROFCHARACTERISTICS)TAPPEARS THATEVERYONEISSUCKEDINTOAVORTEXOFUNWRITTENRULESANDROLEASSUMPTIONS UNABLETOESCAPE !SPREDICTEDBY%MERYAND4RISTS CAUSALTEXTURETHEORYSPATIALPLANNING
INTHISPERIODSEESAMORECOLLABORATIVESTANCEAGREEMENTSAREMADEBETWEEN DEVELOPERSGOVERNMENTSANDOTHERPARTIESANDLOCALGOVERNMENTSSTARTTOWORK TOGETHERnINCONTENTPROCESSANDREALIZATIONnWITHKEYPLAYERSSTRATEGISTSOR OPINIONLEADERS4HEMAINCONCERNISREACHINGACOMPROMISEABOUTTHECONTENT RESPONSIBILITIESINVESTMENTSANDACHIEVEMENTOFPROJECTS4HESEPUBLICnPRIVATE PARTNERSHIPSGIVERISETOWHATBECOMESKNOWNAS@AREA ORIENTEDPLANNING)NTHIS ACTIVITYCERTAINUNWRITTENVALUESANDRULESGUIDETHEPARTICIPANTS4HEUNDERLYING AGREEMENTWHICHlXESTHEEXISTINGPOWERBALANCESLEADSTOREPETITIVEPROCESSES SIMILARSOLUTIONSANDNON TRANSPARENTDECISION MAKING0ARTICIPANTSARESUCKED INTOTHISVORTEX4HISHASSERIOUSCONSEQUENCES
s !CTION IS OFTEN TAKEN TOO LATE DUE TO SLOWDECISION MAKING4HEREFORE ANTICIPATINGEXPECTEDSITUATIONSISDIFlCULTSEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUMEFOR ASIMILARSITUATIONINSOUTHERN3WEDEN
s %XISTINGANDWELL KNOWNPOLITICALSYSTEMSARETHESTANDARD0EOPLEKNOWHOW THESESYSTEMSWORKSOTHEYCONTINUETOUSETHEM4HESESYSTEMSINEVITABLY PRODUCEAVERAGESOLUTIONSANDPROPOSALS
s 0EOPLEINSIDETHISARENABECOMEIMMUNETOSIGNALSFROMOUTSIDE4HEAVERAGE OPINION RESULTING FROMTRYINGTOlNDCOMPROMISES TENDS TOCROWDOUT INNOVATIVEANDORIGINALSOLUTIONS
s 4HESESYSTEMSTENDTOREPRODUCETHEMSELVESANDBECOMEEVENSTRONGERWHEN THREATENEDBYEXTERNALTHREATSnFORINSTANCECLIMATECHANGE
4HISWAYOFSOLVINGPROBLEMSFOCUSEDONREACHINGAGREEMENTSPRECLUDESTACKLING MAJORPROBLEMSANDLOSESSIGHTOFTHECOMPLETEPICTURE!SARESULTTHESYSTEM BECOMESREACTIVEINSTEADOFANTICIPATORYORADAPTIVE!NDEVENWORSEBECAUSETHE WHOLEPICTUREISTOOCOMPLEXFORINDIVIDUALPEOPLETOOVERVIEWTHEYFOCUSONONLY ASEGMENTOFINFORMATIONASTHEBASISFORTHEIRDECISIONSTHESTARTOFNEWPROBLEMS SEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUMEONHOWTHESETIPPINGPOINTSCOMEABOUT !TTHESAMETIMETHENEWINTRACTABLEANDINTERCONNECTEDPROBLEMSTHATTHE
WORLDFACESHAVEALONGTIMEHORIZON%MERYAND4RIST SUGGESTTHATTHEYARE THERESULTOFANEWSETOFINDIRECTANDUNPREDICTABLEINTERACTIONSINTHECONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT4HETRADITIONALSETOFPOLITICALCONSTELLATIONSDOESNOTHAVETHE POWERORTHEINSIGHTTOANTICIPATETHECOMINGCOMPLEXDIFlCULTIESRELATEDTOTHIS #ONSEQUENTLYATTENTIONTENDSTOCONCENTRATEONSINGLEISSUESSUCHASINCOME POLITICSORSPECIlCCONmICTSANDWARS!SARESULTTAKINGTHERIGHTMEASURESNOW TOADAPTTOTHENEWISSUESSUCHASCLIMATECHANGEINTHEFUTUREISDIFlCULT!NEW PARADIGMWILLANDHASTOEMERGEINWHICHTHElXEDCONSTELLATIONSAREBROKEN)N THISPARADIGMACOLLABORATIVEAPPROACHCANNOTBETHEWHOLESTORY$ESIGNWITHIN AVORTICALTEXTUREISALSOTOPICALCOMINGUPWITHTHERIGHTIMPULSEATTHERIGHT MOMENTAGAINSEE#HAPTER
4HE@SPIRALOFPLANNINGSEE&IGURE SHOWSACLEARPARALLELBETWEENTHE lNDINGSOF%MERYAND4RIST ANDTHEDEVELOPMENTSINSOCIETYANDSPATIAL DESIGN)NRESPONSETOTHECONTEXTUALLYCOMPLEXPROBLEMSTHATTHEWORLDISFACING REQUIRINGFOCUSONFUTUREACTIONSANEWDESIGNPARADIGMnADAPTINGTOCURRENT DEVELOPMENTSINSOCIETYnISLIKELYTOEMERGE%XTRAPOLATIONOFTHESPIRALINTOTHE FUTUREWILLGIVEANINSIGHTINTOTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHISFUTUREDESIGNPARADIGM 4HETRADITIONALPARADIGMWITHITSCENTRALLYCONTROLLEDANDlXEDPICTUREOFTHE FUTUREWILLBELEFTBEHINDANDWILLBEREPLACEDWITHONETHATCONTAINSMOREROOM FORSPECIlCAREA ORIENTEDDEVELOPMENTSWHERETHEINmUENCEOFPEOPLEISABLE TOGIVERISETOAMOREmEXIBLEPARADIGM4HEFUTURECOMPLEXITYOFSOCIETYAND ITSPROBLEMSREQUIRESAPLANNINGPARADIGMOFAHIGHERORDERINWHICHASPATIAL INTERVENTIONISABLETOCHANGETHEENTIREREGIONALSPATIALSYSTEMWHICHWEHAVE CALLEDTHESWARMPARADIGM*ACOBSAND2OGGEMA "EFOREWEDISCUSSTHIS INMOREDETAILWECONSIDERRECENTDEVELOPMENTSINSPATIALDESIGNMETHODSINTHE $UTCHPROVINCEOF'RONINGENPROVIDINGUSWITHAREAL WORLDBACKGROUNDAGAINST WHICHTHESWARMPARADIGMMAYBEEXPLAINEDANDUNDERSTOOD
7ENOWHAVEANUMBEROFDIFFERENTTYPESOFCLIMATECHANGESCENARIOSAVAILABLETO EXAMINE/NTHEONEHANDSCIENTIlCSCENARIOSAIMTOPREDICTTHEFUTUREWITHIN CERTAINBOUNDARIESANDONTHEOTHERHANDMOREQUALITATIVECLIMATECHANGE SCENARIOSAREINTENDEDASABASISFORPOLICIESANDDECISIONSONSPATIALMEASURES 4HE'RONINGENEXAMPLEWILLILLUSTRATEHOWTHELATTERCANBEUSED
Scientific scenarios: KNMI
4HE )NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE )0## COLLECTS RECENT SCIENTIlCDATAEVERYlVETOTENYEARSANDPUBLISHESITINAPERIODICASSESSMENT 4HE&OURTH!SSESSMENT)0## WASlNALIZEDIN4HE.ETHERLANDSARE REPRESENTEDINTHE)0##BYTHE2OYAL$UTCH-ETEOROLOGICAL)NSTITUTE+.-) ANDTHE$UTCH%NVIRONMENT!SSESSMENT!GENCY-.0 4HE)0##SCENARIOSARE TRANSLATEDFOR4HE.ETHERLANDSBYTHE+.-)INTOFOURCLIMATESCENARIOSFORTHE YEAR+.-) 4HESCENARIOSnMODERATECHANGEDMODERATEWARM ANDCHANGEDWARMnDESCRIBETHECHANGESINTEMPERATURE—#TO—# ANDTHE POSSIBLEmUCTUATIONSINAIRPATTERNSWHICHMIGHTLEADTOWETTERWINTERPERIODS ANDDRYERSUMMERPERIODSSEE&IGURE #ORRESPONDINGWITHTHESESCENARIOS ARESIGNIlCANTCHANGESINSEALEVELBETWEENCMANDCMIN $ORLAND AND*ANSEN /N THEOTHERHAND THE FUTUREMAYBE RATHERDIFFERENT$AVID#ARLSON
SCIENTIlCDIRECTOROFTHE)NTERNATIONAL0OLAR9EAR)09 CONSIDERSSUCHADIFFERENT
FUTUREPLAUSIBLE)NANINTERVIEWWITHANATIONALNEWSPAPER#ARLSON HE STATESTHATITMIGHTBEPOSSIBLETHATTHEUPCOMINGCENTURYWILLSEETHESEALEVELRISE BYMCAUSEDBYANACCELERATEDMELTINGOFGLACIERSIN'REENLANDAND7ESTERN !NTARCTICA
Robustness scenarios: Groningen
4ODISCUSSFUTURETRENDSAFFECTINGTHEPROVINCEOF'RONINGENCLIMATECHANGE SCENARIOSAREUSEDINADIFFERENTWAYFOCUSINGONTHEDElNITIONOFANINTEGRATED SPATIALPOLICY
Starting point: Two scenarios 4OSTARTWITHTHE+.-)SCENARIOSWERECOMBINEDINTOONEWARMSCENARIOWITH CHANGEDAIRPATTERNS!SECONDSCENARIOISBASEDONTHEACCELERATEDMELTINGOFTHE LANDICEIN'REENLANDAND!NTARCTICA2OGGEMA 4HISSCENARIOISFOUND TOBELESSREALISTICBYTHE)0##BUTPOLARRESEARCHSCIENTISTS#ARLSON (ACQUEBORD CONSIDERTHELATTERSCENARIOCLOSERTOREALITYTHANTHE+.-) SCENARIOS"OTHSCENARIOSAREDElNEDFOR4ABLESUMMARIZESTHEKEY INDICATORS
3CHEMATICOVERVIEWOFTHEFOUR+.-)CLIMATESCENARIOS
Implications for Groningen #LIMATECHANGEHASBEENUNTILNOWRESEARCHEDATTHEGLOBALANDNATIONALLEVEL !TTHEREGIONALSCALEUNCERTAINTIESAREHUGEANDRESEARCHISJUSTBEINGSTARTED&OR THEPROVINCEOF'RONINGENTHREEKEYFACTORSCRUCIALFORSPATIALFUNCTIONSARE RESEARCHEDPRECIPITATIONTEMPERATUREANDSEA LEVELRISE 4HESUMMERWILLBECOMEMUCHDRYER4HEPEATCOLONIESINPARTICULARWILL
HAVETOFACEWATERSHORTAGES$URINGTHESEDRYPERIODSITWILLBENECESSARYTOSUPPLY WATERTODRIED OUTAREAS(IGHERTEMPERATURESANDANINCREASEINEVAPORATIONWILL DRIVEUPWATERDEMANDINSUMMEREVENFURTHER/NTHEOTHERHANDOCCASIONAL RAINSWILLBEMUCHHEAVIER)NAUTUMNANDSPRINGPRECIPITATIONWILLINCREASE)N THENORTHERNPARTSOFTHEPROVINCEINANDAROUNDTHECITYOF'RONINGENANDIN OTHERURBANAREASTHISWILLCAUSEURBANmOODS4HESURPLUSOFRAINWATERMAYBE DISCHARGEDTOWARDSSTORAGEAREAS4HISREQUIRESSPACE !NIMPORTANTQUESTIONWILLBEWHETHERAGRICULTUREANDNATURECANWITHSTAND
THEDRYSUMMERPERIOD7ILLPOTATOPRODUCTIONBEABLETOREACHTHENECESSARY LEVELTOSUPPLYTHELOCALSTARCHINDUSTRYWHICHISPROMINENTINTHEAREA4HE ABSENCEOFWATERISAMAINFACTORBUTTHELENGTHENINGOFTHEGROWINGSEASONnDUE TOEARLYHIGHERTEMPERATURESnNEEDSTOBETAKENINTOACCOUNT7ILLNATUREBE ABLETOOVERCOMETHEDRYSUMMER4HEWETTODRYGRADIENTSWILLESPECIALLYCREATE VULNERABILITYATTHEEDGESOFBROOKSANDSMALLANDISOLATEDECOLOGICALRESERVES 2ISINGTEMPERATURESHOWEVERWILLOFFEROPPORTUNITIESFORLEISUREANDTOURISM 4HESEALEVELISRISINGINBOTHSCENARIOSANDTHEEXTENTTOWHICHTHISOCCURS
WILLDEPENDUPONTHESPEEDOFTHEMELTINGPROCESSESOFLANDICE0OTENTIALIMPACT UPONTHELANDSCAPEIFTHESEAENTERSTHELANDUNDISTURBEDISSHOWNIN&IGURE )NREALITYTHELANDSCAPECONTAINSSEVERALOBSTACLESEGROADSANDSMALLDIKES
WHICHWILLREDUCEmOODINGOFTHELAND/NTHEOTHERHANDTHEIMPACTMAPSOF &IGUREDONOTTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHECIRCUMSTANCESUNDERWHICHABREECHOF THEWATERDEFENCESWOULDNORMALLYTAKEPLACEnCOMBININGSPRINGTIDEWITHHEAVY RAINANDWIND)NTHEHIGHESTPARTSOFTHEPROVINCETHERISKOFmOODINGISMINIMAL /NLYIFSEALEVELRISESMORETHANMWILLTHESEAREASBEINDANGER4HENORTHERN
4ABLE 3CENARIOSFOR
PARTSOFTHEPROVINCECANWITHSTANDSEALEVELRISESOFM4HEINDUSTRIALAREAS OF%EMSHAVENAND$ELFZIJLAREEVENINTHEMOREEXTREMESCENARIOS RELATIVELY SAFEDUETOTHEIRARTIlCIAL HIGHERALTITUDES4HELOWERANDWETTERPARTSOFTHE PROVINCESHOWASPATIALCONNECTIONBETWEEN,AUWERS,AKEAND$OLLARD4HIS CONNECTIONMIGHTBECRUCIALFORECOLOGICALZONINGBECAUSENATUREHASTHEBEST CHANCETOSURVIVEINTHESEROBUSTANDWETAREAS !NOTHEREFFECTOFSEA LEVELRISECOULDBETHEDISAPPEARANCEOFPARTSOFTHE
7ADDEN3EASANDBANKSTOTHENORTH2APIDSEA LEVELRISELEADSTOTHEINABILITYOF THESEDIMENTATIONPROCESSTOSUPPLYSANDBANKSWHICHQUICKLYBECOMESUBMERGED $E"OO )TISESTIMATEDTHATPERCENTOFSANDBANKSCOULDDISAPPEAR YEARSFROMNOW
Idea map of climate-adapted Groningen #LIMATEANALYSISLEADSTOANIDEAMAPOFAMOREADAPTIVE'RONINGEN)N&IGURE THEADAPTATIONISSPATIALLYTRANSLATED2OGGEMA 4HEMAPISASPATIAL IMAGEOFCLIMATEDESIGNPRINCIPLES4HEREALIZATIONOFFUNCTIONSTHATAREVALUABLETO THEECONOMYSUCHASHOUSINGINDUSTRYANDINFRASTRUCTUREATTHESAFESTLOCATIONS IEHIGHERALTITUDES ISANIMPORTANTUNDERLYINGPRINCIPLE)FHOUSINGOROTHER FUNCTIONSARE TOBE LOCATED IN LOWERAREAS THENEWEST INNOVATIVE TECHNIQUES mOODABLEHOUSESmOATINGHOUSESNEWARTIlCIALHILLSORWIERDENORLIVINGON SUPERDIKES WILLHAVETOBEUSED/NTHEOTHERHANDTHEPROVINCEWILLPROlTFROM WARMERANDDRYSUMMERSBYCREATINGHOUSINGANDRECREATIONNEARNATURERESERVES ONISLANDSANDALONGTHECOAST4OCOPEWITHINCREASEDRAINFALLDURINGAUTUMN
ANDSPRINGWATERSTORAGENEEDSTOBEORGANIZED!SYSTEMTHATPROVIDESNATURE ANDAGRICULTUREWITHWATERDURINGTHEDRYSUMMERWILLHAVETOBEIMPLEMENTED &INALLYSPACEISREQUIREDFORVARIOUSOTHERFUNCTIONSSUCHASAQUACULTUREALONG THESALTIERCOASTINUNDATIONANDROBUSTECOLOGICALZONES )NAUTUMNWINTERANDSPRINGEXISTINGBROOKSWILLDISCHARGETHESURPLUSOF
RAINWATERINTOTHESTORAGERESERVOIRSINTHECENTRALLOWERAREA(EREAROBUST
ECOLOGICALNETWORKOFFERSSPACEFORSPECIESTHATAREPUSHEDAWAYFROMOTHERCLIMATE ZONESINORDERTOSURVIVE4HERESERVOIRSPROVIDEAGRICULTUREWITHENOUGHWATERIN SUMMERMAKINGUSEOFTHEEXISTINGCANALSYSTEM 4HECOASTAL ZONEWILLBECOME SALTIERWHICHMAKES THIS AREA SUITABLE FOR
AQUACULTURE.EAR,AUWERS,AKE$OLLARDANDAROUND$ELFZIJLSPACEISCREATED WHERESEAWATERISALLOWEDTOINUNDATEANDCANBEPERIODICALLYSTORED!BRACKISH ENVIRONMENTEMERGES !CCELERATINGSEA LEVELRISEPLACESTHEECOSYSTEMOFTHE7ADDEN3EAATRISK4O
PREVENTTHENATURALENVIRONMENTFROMDISAPPEARINGANOFFENSIVECOASTALDEFENCE SYSTEMISINTRODUCED!SPARTOFTHISFUTURENEWISLANDSARECREATEDINTHE.ORTH 3EA!LDERS2OGGEMAETAL TOPROTECTTHEHINTERLANDAGAINSTHEAVIER STORMSANDTOALLOWTHELANDSCAPETODEVELOPBYDOWNGRADINGTHEINTENSITYOF THEWAVES!TTHESAMETIMETHEISLANDSOFFERANEXCELLENTOPPORTUNITYTOACHIEVE LUXURIOUS LIVINGSPACE INRECREATIONALANDTOURISTAREAS4HENEWISLANDSWILL CREATEALAGOONWHERESANDEASILYMOVESTHROUGHASEDIMENTATIONPROCESSAND THEEXISTINGSANDBANKSAREABLETOCATCHUPWITHTHESPEEDOFSEA LEVELRISE4HE SANDBANKSWILLCONTINUETOFALLDRYANDTHE7ADDEN3EAWILLRETAINITSSEMI NATURAL ENVIRONMENT 4HEINTRODUCTIONOFNEWISLANDSISANEXAMPLEOFTHENEWPLANNINGPARADIGM
)TISANANSWERTOLONG TERMANDCOMPLEXPROBLEMS4HEISLANDSFUNCTIONASAN INTERVENTIONTHATMIGHTCHANGETHEWHOLEECOSYSTEMOFTHECOASTANDTHESEA
AFFECTINGLIFEINWATERANDONLANDASITMAKESUSEOFTHENATURALPROCESSESOF WATERWINDANDSEA 4HISISANEXAMPLEOFSWARMPLANNINGANEWPARADIGMTHATDIFFERSFUNDA
MENTALLYFROMTHECURRENTPARADIGMINWHICHSOLUTIONSAREONE DIMENSIONAL SUCHASTHEHEIGHTENINGOFDIKES
Developments in society
4ODAYABROADRANGEOFINFORMATIONISCONTINUOUSLYAVAILABLETOEVERYONE!N INCREASINGNUMBEROFINTERACTIONSISPOSSIBLEANDCONTINUOUSLYOCCURS4HESE INTERACTIONSDETERMINETHEDIRECTIONTHATSOCIETYISTAKINGALTHOUGHITISDIFlCULT TOPREDICTHOWTHINGSWILLEVOLVE)SSUESSUCHASCLIMATECHANGEWHICHWILLHAVEA MAJORIMPACTUPONPEOPLESLIVESAREANILLUSTRATIONOFHOWANINCREASINGSERIESOF COMPLEXINTERACTIONSWHICHINmUENCEEACHOTHERLEADTOHIGH IMPACTPROBLEMS mOODSDROUGHTBUSHlRESDESERTSMELTINGPERMAFROSTETC4HEEXACTRELATIONAND EFFECTSOFTHESEINTERACTIONSCANNOTBEASSESSEDBYANYSINGLEINDIVIDUAL0EOPLEARE GRADUALLYBEGINNINGTOUNDERSTANDHOWASINGLEINTERVENTIONCANAFFECTTHEENTIRE SYSTEMREQUIRINGMULTILAYEREDTHINKING
Design approach
!COMBINATIONOFCONTINUOUSANDONGOINGINTERACTIONSMULTILAYEREDTHINKING ANDKNOWLEDGEOFINVISIBLECONNECTIONSWILLBEREQUIREDTODEALWITHCLIMATE CHANGEBECAUSETHEINDIRECTCONSEQUENCESOFANYINTERVENTIONNEEDTOBEFORESEEN SUCHTHATTHETOTALSYSTEMISABLETOADAPTINTIME4HECREATIONOFNEWISLANDS EXEMPLIlESTHISTHEYCHANGETHEEXISTINGSYSTEMCREATINGEMERGINGCIRCUMSTANCES FORSPECTACULARLIVINGHIGH QUALITYNATUREANDCOASTALPROTECTION"YINmUENCING ACRUCIALPARTINTHESYSTEMATACAREFULLYSELECTEDHIGH LEVERAGEPOINTTHEENTIRE AREACHANGESANDFUTUREEFFECTSOFCLIMATECHANGECANBENElTSPATIALQUALITY %XTRAORDINARYCREATIVITYOFASPECIALISTNATURE2IDDERSTR»LEAND.ORDSTRšM ISREQUIREDTOlNDTHESECRUCIALINTERVENTIONS4HESEBRIGHTANDABOVE AVERAGE IDEASWILLBEABLETOHELPUSCHANGETHEWAYINWHICHWELIVEINORDERTOADAPT TOCLIMATECHANGE)FWEDONOTANTICIPATELONG TERMDEVELOPMENTSANDSTICKTO THEWAYWEUSUALLYACTlNDINGCOMPROMISESANDDEVISINGSUBSTANDARDSOLUTIONS UNSOLVABLEPROBLEMSWILLAPPEAR
Innovation shift
"ECAUSESOCIETYEVOLVESITISREASONABLETOASSUMETHATTHEPLANNINGPARADIGM WILLADJUSTASWELL4HESHIFTTHATISTAKINGPLACECANBEDESCRIBEDASANINNOVATION
SHIFTSEE&IGURE !GOVERNMENTWITHSTRONGESTABLISHEDPROCEDURESANDRULES WILLBECOMEINERT)NTHESECIRCUMSTANCESITISHARDLYPOSSIBLEFORCREATIVITYAND NEWSOLUTIONSTOEMERGE7ENEEDTOCONSIDERWHATCANBEDONETECHNOLOGICALLY ASTRADITIONALSOLUTIONSREACHTHEIRLIMITS!NINNOVATIONSHIFT2OGGEMAB BRINGSANEWARENAWHEREEXCEPTIONAL TALENTSAND IMAGINATIVECREATIVITYARE THEMAINVALUES4HEROLEOFTHEGOVERNMENTISSTILLIMPORTANTBUTHASLESSENED nESSENTIALLYINORDERTOSTIMULATETHEEMERGENCEOFIDEASANDTOGUIDEANETWORK BASEDORGANIZATIONINWHICHTHEIDEA CREATINGPROCESSESAREEMBEDDED3MALL INNOVATIVECOMPANIESnABLETOOPERATEmEXIBLYANDREACTINGDIRECTLYTOFUZZY QUESTIONSWHILEDISTINGUISHINGTHEMSELVESWITHBRILLIANTSKILLSINSOLVINGSUCH PROBLEMSCREATIVELYnWILLBECOMECRUCIALFORPROGRESS&LORIDA
Swarm planning
)NORDERTOPREPARESOCIETYWITH ITSENDLESS INTERACTIONS FORTHEFUTURE IT IS NECESSARYTOBRINGTHEREGIONALSPATIALDESIGNSYSTEMTOAHIGHERLEVELOFCOMPLEXITY SOTHATITISABLETOADAPTBETTERTOFUTUREANDUNFORESEENCHANGES)NTHELONG TERMAREGIONOFHIGHERCOMPLEXITYISBETTERCAPABLEOFADJUSTINGITSELFTONEW CIRCUMSTANCESTHANANINERTONE)NORDERTOREACHTHISHIGHERLEVELOFCOMPLEXITY NEWCRUCIALINTERVENTIONSMUSTBEDISCOVEREDTHATCANCHANGETHEENTIREREGIONAL SPATIALSYSTEMANDMAKEITMOREROBUST!NEWDESIGNPARADIGMWHICHFOCUSES ONTHESEINTERVENTIONSISTHEREFOREREQUIRED4HISNEWDESIGNPARADIGMCANBE CALLEDSWARMPLANNINGANANALOGYOFASWARMOFBIRDS
!SWARMISTRANSFORMINGCONSTANTLY INmUENCEDBYEXTERNALIMPULSESAND DIRECTEDBYONLYAFEWVERYSIMPLERULES4HESWARMISCHANGINGITSPATTERN SUDDENLYBYAPPARENTIMPULSEITALTERSITSFORMANDDIRECTION4HEQUESTIONIS WHICHINTERVENTIONSBRINGTHESWARMTOAHIGHERLEVEROFCOMPLEXITYWHICHCAN BECHARACTERIZEDASABOVEAVERAGEANDWHICHAS@MULTILAYEREDTHINKING)NORDER TOCONSIDERTHISITISHELPFULTOLOOKATCOMPLEXSYSTEMSESPECIALLYTHOSETHATARE @CLOSETOCHAOSSEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUME
Typology of complex systems
7HICHKINDOFSYSTEMSARETHE@PLAYGROUNDFORNEWIDEASONTHEEDGEBETWEEN CHAOSANDEFFECTIVEINTERVENTIONS3YSTEMSINGENERALCANBESUBDIVIDEDINTOFOUR CATEGORIES7OLFRAM
CLOSEDSYSTEM LINEARFEEDBACKSYSTEMS SYSTEMSRANDOMLYOPENTOASSIMILATIONAND NON LINEARADAPTIVESYSTEMS
2OO DESCRIBESCLASS)6SYSTEMSNON LINEARADAPTIVESYSTEMS ASABLETO BEHAVEINORDERTOMAXIMIZEBENElTSOFSTABILITYWHILERETAININGACAPACITYTO CHANGE-ITCHELL7ALDROP 4HEQUESTIONISHOWTOINTERPRETDESIGNPROJECTS INTERMSOFCOMPLEXSYSTEMS2OO SUGGESTSTHATTHEFOLLOWINGASPECTSARE RELEVANTTOCREATECLASS)6SYSTEMS
s 4HEYCONTAINALARGENUMBEROFINTERACTIONS s 3IMPLERULESUNDERPINCOMPLEXITY s !DAPTATIONSELF ORGANIZATIONANDCO EVOLUTIONAREAPPARENT s 4HEDESIGNTRANSFORMSANDRETAINSTHEPROJECT s $ESIGNPRINCIPLESARECHARACTERIZEDBYROBUSTNESSEMERGENCEANDlTNESSFOR PURPOSE
)NADDITIONEXPERIENCESHOWSTHATTHESUBJECTOFDESIGNISOFTENSENSITIVETO IMPULSESANDTIPPINGPOINTS 4HEQUESTIONATTHISSTAGEISWHICHPLANNINGAPPROACHESWOULDBEMOSTEFFECTIVE
IFTHEFUTURECONSISTSOFCLASS)6SYSTEMBEHAVIOURMANIFESTINALARGENUMBEROF INTERACTIONS4HEINSIGHTSOFORGANIZATIONDYNAMICSCANBEUSEFULHERE(OMAN SUGGESTSTHATIMPROVINGTHEOVERALLlTNESSOFANORGANIZATIONREQUIRESTHE FOLLOWINGCONDITIONS
s ,ARGEGROUPSOF INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS LEAD TO THE EMERGENCEOF COLLECTIVE PATTERNSUNDERCERTAINCONDITIONSEGTHEAMOUNTOFCONNECTIONSQUALITYOF RELATIONSANDNETWORK
s 4HEREISENOUGHDIVERSITYBUTNOTTOOMUCHTOSTARTAUTOCATALYTICPROCESSES s )DEAINTERACTION(OMANCALLSITIDEASEX BETWEENDIFFERENTELEMENTSMAYLEAD TOCREATIVEJUMPSWHERENEWSTRUCTURESANDINFORMATIONARECREATED
s #O EVOLUTIONOFLOCALSYSTEMSLEADSTOTHEEMERGENCEOFCOLLECTIVEPATTERNS ENHANCINGTHEOVERALLlTNESSOFTHESYSTEM
s #OMPLEXSYSTEMSMANIFESTSEVERALCO EXISTINGPATTERNSPATCHES RATHERTHAN ONEOVERALLPATTERNORALARGEVARIETYOFLOCALSYSTEMS
s ,OCALIDEASFUNCTIONASNUCLEIEVENTUALLYINmUENCINGANDPATRONIZINGLARGE PARTSOFACOMPLEXSYSTEM
4HECOMMONCHARACTERISTICINTHECONDITIONSDESCRIBEDARELARGENUMBERSAND MANYINTERACTIONS4HERENEEDSTOBEASUBSTANTIALPOOLOFELEMENTS4HECHANCE THATELEMENTSWILL INTERACT IS THENMOREPROBABLEANDNEWPROCESSESEMERGE INCREASINGTHEOVERALLlTNESSOFTHESYSTEM 7HATISMISSINGSOFARISATRIGGERSETTINGTHESEPROCESSESINMOTIONSUCHASA
FOCALPOINTTHATENFORCESTHEPOOLOFINTERACTIVEELEMENTSANDSTARTINGTHEPROCESS OFCHANGINGTHESYSTEM4HESEPOINTSWHERE@DOVECOTESmUTTERULTIMATELYMAKE THINGSHAPPEN%VERYELEMENTINTHESYSTEMORIENTATESITSELFTOTHESEPOINTSAND BYDOINGSOTHESYSTEMASAWHOLECHANGES4HERESULTISANINNOVATIONCOMING OUTOFABUNCHOFIDEAS!NIMPULSENEEDSTOBEADDEDINORDERTOREACHATIPPING POINT
Tipping points
4HETIPPINGPOINTISTHATMAGICMOMENTWHENANIDEATRENDORSOCIALBEHAVIOUR CROSSESATHRESHOLDTIPSANDSPREADSLIKEWILDlRE4HEPOSSIBILITYOFSUDDENCHANGE ISATTHECENTREOFTHEIDEAOFTHETIPPINGPOINT"IGCHANGESOCCURASARESULTOF SMALLEVENTS4HESITUATIONISSIMILARTOTHEPHENOMENONOFANEPIDEMIC %PIDEMICSFOLLOWTHREERULES'LADWELL
THELAWOFTHEFEWASMALLPARTOFTHEWHOLEDOESALLTHEWORK THESTICKINESS FACTOR THEMESSAGEMAKESAN IMPACTn IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORGET THE POWER OF CONTEXT SENSITIVITY TO THE ENVIRONMENT INFLUENCE OF THE
SURROUNDINGS
"YAPPLYINGTHESERULESTOPLANNINGANDDESIGNTHEQUESTIONOFWHENADESIGN BECOMESASUCCESSREINFORCINGTHEREQUIREDCHANGESCANBEUNDERSTOOD&IRSTOF ALLTHELAWOFTHEFEWTELLSUSTHATASUCCESSFULDESIGNWILLORIGINATEFROMASMALL GROUPOFINDIVIDUALS4HEDESIGNISNOTWHATTHEMAJORITYEXPECTS)NORDERTO CHANGETHINGSTHEDESIGNWILLBEABOVEAVERAGE2IDDERSTR»LEAND.ORDSTRšM 2OGGEMAB
3ECONDTHESTICKINESSFACTORSUGGESTSTHATASUCCESSFULDESIGNSTICKSINONES HEAD/NCEHAVINGSEENTHEIMAGEOFTHEDESIGNITISNOTFORGOTTEN2OBERTS CALLSITAVISIBLELOVEMARK!GOODEXAMPLEOFTHISISTHEDESIGNFORTHEWALL IN!LMERE0OORTSEE&IGURE -62$6ETAL &INALLYTHEPOWEROFCONTEXTINRELATIONTODESIGNPROCESSESTELLSUSTHATA
DESIGNWITHHIGHIMPACTPROVIDESTHESOLUTIONTOACOMMONLYFELTPROBLEM)F AFUNDAMENTALCHANGEISREQUIREDSUCHASCLIMATECHANGENECESSITATESAWIDELY SHAREDCONTEXTOFDEEPTROUBLEIMPROVESTHECHANCESOFCHANGE!SENSEOFREAL URGENCYISREQUIREDFORFUNDAMENTALCHANGEANDACRISISWILLPROVIDETHEENERGY TOJUMPTOTHENEWSITUATION4IMMERMANS )FTHEEXISTINGSYSTEMIS INADEQUATEACRISISISREQUIREDTOJUMPTOTHENEXTLEVELOFCOMPLEXITYREQUIREDTO UPGRADETHESYSTEMSEE&IGURE 'ELDOF 4HESECRISESCANBESEENAS THETIPPINGPOINTSINDESIGNPROCESSES
A new design paradigm
4RANSLATEDINPLANNINGDESIGNTERMSTHEEFFECTIVESPATIALINTERVENTIONCREATESA TIPPINGPOINTORIENTATINGALLSPATIALSOCIETALANDPOLITICALELEMENTSINSUCHA WAYTHATTHEENTIREREGIONCHANGES#ONTEMPORARYPLANNINGAPPROACHESDONOT PROVIDETHISANDTHEREFOREINTHELIGHTOFTHEPROBLEMSPOSEDBYCLIMATECHANGE ANEWWAYOFDESIGNISREQUIRED!SWESUGGESTEDEARLIERTHENEWSPATIALDESIGN PARADIGMISCALLEDSWARMPLANNING2OGGEMAB )NTHISPARADIGMTHEROLE OFSPATIALDESIGNISSEENASINTRODUCINGESSENTIALIMPULSESTOINmUENCETHEWHOLE SYSTEMLIKEASWARMOFBIRDSRESHAPESITSELFCONSTANTLYUNDEREXTERNALINmUENCES 3PATIALDESIGNWILLNOLONGERBECONCERNEDWITHTHEWHOLEPICTUREBUTWILLFOCUS ONTHOSEESSENTIALDESIGNINTERVENTIONSTHATENFORCETHEREGIONTORESHAPEITSELF 4HEMETAPHORISNOTANYLONGERTHEBLUEPRINTBUTACUPUNCTURE 4HUSFORASWARM PLANNINGAPPROACH2OGGEMAETAL TOBESUCCESSFUL
TWOASPECTSAREESSENTIALTHESPATIAL CHARACTERISTICSOFTHEREGIONANDTHEAVAILABILITY OFEXTRAORDINARYIDEAS#OMPLEXSYSTEMSTHEORYSUGGESTSTHATTHESWARMPARADIGM WILLWORKWHERETHEFOLLOWINGCONDITIONSAREMET
s ALARGEGROUPOFINDIVIDUALELEMENTSPEOPLEBUILDINGS s MANYCONNECTIONSVIRTUALROADSRAILWATER
s HIGH QUALITYRELATIONSFASTINTENSE s HIGH QUALITYNETWORKmEXIBILITYINTENSITY s ENOUGHBUTNOTTOOMUCHDIVERSITYNEIGHBOURHOODSGROUPS s SEVERALCO EXISTINGPATTERNSPATCHES
)FTHESECIRCUMSTANCESENTAILIDEAMERGERSBETWEENDIFFERENTELEMENTSTHISWILL LEADTOCREATIVEJUMPSANDNEWSTRUCTURESANDINFORMATIONWILLEVOLVE!SMALL GROUPOFEXTRAVAGANTANDCREATIVEPEOPLEWILLENFORCETHISANDTRANSFORMITINTO ACATCHYIDEAWHICHINmUENCESANDSHAPESLARGEPARTSOFTHEREGION)FASENSEOF URGENCYEXISTSEGREGARDINGCLIMATECHANGE ASUITABLETRIGGERBRINGSTHEIDEA TOATIPPINGPOINTANDCOLLECTIVEPATTERNSEMERGEOUTOFTHECO EVOLUTIONOFLOCAL SYSTEMSLEADINGTOANINCREASEDOVERALLlTNESSOFTHESYSTEMWHICHISABLETOADAPT MOREEASILYTOTHENEWWORLDOFCLIMATECHANGE 4HISPARADIGMISNOTYETCOMMONBUTTHElRSTEXAMPLESINSPATIALDESIGN
ARETHERE4HEWAYINWHICHINTERVENTIONSAREPLANNEDINTHE@"LAUWE3TADIN THEREMOTEPARTSOF'RONINGEN0ROVINCEVANDER-EER THEPROJECTION OFNEWISLANDSALONGTHENORTHERNCOASTOF4HE.ETHERLANDSTHEIMPACTTHATTHE ™RESUND"RIDGEHASONACCESSIBILITYECONOMICWELFAREANDIMAGESOF-ALMš AND#OPENHAGENORTHEWAYINWHICH-ENDINI0OLETTI CHANGEDTHE ENTIREINNERCITYIN'RONINGENTHROUGHTHE'RONINGER-USEUMPROJECTAREEARLY EXAMPLESOFSWARMPLANNING
‘Blauwe Stad’
4HEEASTERNPARTOFTHEPROVINCEOF'RONINGENHASTRADITIONALLYBEENTHEPOOREST REGIONIN4HE.ETHERLANDSWITHPERVASIVEHIGHUNEMPLOYMENTLOWLEVELSOF EDUCATIONANDPOVERTY0EOPLEWHOCOULDLEFTTHEAREA4HISPROVIDESAGOOD EXAMPLEOFSWARMPLANNING)NTHISCASETHESWARMCONSISTSOFTHEPEOPLELIVING INTHEAREA4HEYWEREDISSATISlEDWITHTHEIRSITUATIONnORINSWARMLANGUAGE WITHTHESHAPEOFTHEIRSWARM)TWASCOMMONLYFELTTHATSOMETHINGNEEDEDTOBE CHANGED4HISCHANGEWASCREATEDTHROUGHANIMPULSEPROVIDEDBYONEDEPUTYOF THEREGIONALGOVERNMENT4HEPROJECTCONCERNEDESTABLISHINGACOMPLETELYNEW VILLAGEn"LAUWE3TADnAROUNDANEWLAKEWHICHHADBEENSHOWNTOATTRACT WELL EDUCATEDANDWEALTHYPEOPLEFROMOUTSIDETHEAREA4HEPROJECTACTSAS ANIMPULSEASTHENEWVILLAGEMAKESITSELFFELTACROSSTHEENTIREAREAWITHNEW AMENITIESRESTRUCTUREDVILLAGESANDNEWTRANSPORTATIONDEVELOPINGAROUNDTHE "LAUWE3TAD
The Groninger Museum
4HE@6ERBINDINGSKANAALISAWATERWAYATTHEEDGEOFTHECITYCENTREOF'RONINGEN LOCATEDBETWEENTHECENTRALSTATIONANDTHEINNERCITY4HEFASTESTWAYTOREACH
THEINNERCITYWASTRADITIONALLYTOGOAROUNDTHECANAL!SARESULTTHEAREAATTHE CITYSIDEOFTHE6ERBINDINGSKANAALBECAMENEGLECTEDATTRACTINGHOOLIGANSAND CRIMINALS)NTHISCASETHESWARMCONSISTSOFTHEBUILDINGSFUNCTIONSANDROUTES INTHISPARTOFTHEINNERCITY-OSTOFTHEELEMENTSINTHEAREAWERENEGLECTED MALFUNCTIONINGANDOFLOWQUALITY4HESHAPEOFTHESWARMDISSATISlEDLARGE GROUPSOFPEOPLEUSERSPOLICY MAKERSANDPOLITICIANS/NCEAGAINONEDEPUTY OFTHEMUNICIPALITYPROVIDEDTHEIMPORTANTIMPULSE(EENFORCEDTHEBUILDING OFTHEMUSEUMRIGHTINTHEMIDDLEOFTHE6ERBINDINGSKANAAL!NEWANDMUCH SHORTERCONNECTIONWASINTRODUCEDBETWEENTHESTATIONANDTHEINNERCITY-ANY PEOPLEBEGANTOUSETHISCONNECTIONANDINFEWYEARSTIMETHENEGLECTEDAREAWAS TRANSFORMEDINTOAVERYPOPULARNEIGHBOURHOODWHERELOTSOFHIGH QUALITYSHOPS EMERGED)NTHISWAYTHEMUSEUMTRANSFORMEDTHEENTIREINNERCITY
The solar polder
4HE$UTCHSUPPLYOFNATURALGASISPRODUCEDIN'RONINGEN0ROVINCE4HEGAS NETWORKANDKNOWLEDGEABOUTGASIN'RONINGENISEXCEPTIONAL%VENSOBY MOSTGASRESERVESWILLBEDEPLETED)NTHISCASETHESWARMCONSISTSOFTHECURRENT ENERGYCONSTELLATIONnENERGYCOMPANIESEXISTINGNETWORKANDMARKETPOLICIES nWHICHDOESNOTWANTTOCHANGEITSWAYOFACTING4HISNETWORKISSTRONGAND TENDSTOBEREPETITIVEINITSBEHAVIOUR4HISWILLEVENTUALLYBEPROBLEMATICASFOSSIL FUELRESERVESDIMINISH)NORDERTOPREVENTTHEPROVINCEFROMBECOMINGDEPENDENT
UPONTHEIMPORTOFENERGYPLANSHAVEBEENDEVELOPEDTOCREATEASO CALLEDHA @SOLARPOLDERINTHEEASTERNPARTOF'RONINGENnONCEAGAINANINITIATIVEOFONE DEPUTYOFTHEREGIONALAUTHORITY"YMAKINGUSEOFCURRENTKNOWLEDGEANDTHE EXISTINGGASNETWORKTHISWILLENABLEENERGYTOBESUPPLIEDTOMOSTPEOPLEAND INDUSTRIESWITHINTHEPROVINCE4HEINTRODUCTIONOFSOLARENERGYWILLCHANGETHE ENTIREENERGYSUPPLY&IRSTITWILLCUTTHROUGHTHEEXISTINGINDUSTRYSTRUCTUREOF GASANDOILCOMPANIESWITHOUTCHANGINGTHEDISTRIBUTIONNETWORK3ECONDITWILL ATTRACTSPECIALIZEDRESEARCHCOMPANIESTOTHEPROVINCE4HEINTRODUCTIONOFTHE SOLARPOLDERWILLSTIMULATETHETECHNOLOGICALDEVELOPMENTOFSOLARPOWERRESULTING
INADECISIVEADVANCECOMPAREDTOOTHERSOURCES/NCETHETIPPINGPOINTHASBEEN REACHEDSOLARPOWERMAYWELLBECOMETHEMOSTIMPORTANTENERGYSOURCEINTHE FUTUREATLEASTINTHISPARTOFTHEWORLD
Steer the swarm
"ECAUSEOFTHEINABILITYOFTRADITIONALSPATIALPLANNINGTOCREATEANDREINFORCE EFFECTIVEINTERVENTIONSTHATARECAPABLEOFCHANGINGTHEREGIONALSYSTEMANEW STEERINGPRINCIPLENEEDSTOBEDEVELOPED4HISISSUEISEXPLOREDINSOMEDEPTHIN THEENVIRONMENTALSPATIALPLANOF'RONINGEN0ROVINCE2OGGEMAAND(UYINK LEADINGTO THEDECISIONTODEVELOPARANGEOFAPPROACHES INORDER TO INmUENCETHESPATIALSYSTEM)NDOINGSOITISHOPEDTHATTHEBESTREGIMEWITHTHE MOSTSATISFACTORYOUTCOMEWILLEMERGE4HEAIMISTOENDUPWITHAREGIMETHAT ISABLETOCHANGETHEDIRECTIONOFTHE@SWARMTOWARDSAHIGHSTANDARDOFSPATIAL
QUALITY4HEMOSTAPPROPRIATEAPPROACHESMAYDIFFERFROMAREATOAREADEPENDING UPONTHEIRIDENTITYANDTHEAVAILABILITYOFANUMBEROFAPPROACHESTOCHOOSEFROM INCOMBINATIONWITHTHEUNIQUECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEAREAWILLMAKEITPOSSIBLETO HELPTHEAREAADAPTTOUNCERTAINFUTUREDEVELOPMENTSSUCHASCLIMATECHANGEAS ILLUSTRATEDCOLOURFULLYBYTHEWELL KNOWN$UTCHPAINTER-ONDRIAN
4HEWORLDHASlRMLYENTERED THEERAOFGLOBAL TURBULENCE4HISHAS SERIOUS CONSEQUENCESFORHOWPEOPLEANDORGANIZATIONSNEEDTOCONDUCTTHEIRAFFAIRS #OUNTRIESANDREGIONSMUSTEXPECTSIGNIlCANTANDUNFORESEENSTRUCTURALCHANGEIN THEFUTURE)NORDERTOCOPEWITHTHISTHEYNEEDTODEVELOPADEGREEOFADAPTABILITY THATISOFADIFFERENTORDEROFMAGNITUDETHANISMANIFESTTODAY4HISISPARTICULARLY TRUEFORSPATIALDESIGNWHICHANTICIPATESTHEUNCERTAINTIESOFTHEFAR FUTURE /VERTIMEDESIGNERSHAVESHOWNTHEMSELVESABLETOCHANGETHEIRPARADIGMIN
RESPONSETOTHENEEDSOFTHEMOMENT3UCHACHANGEISNECESSARYTODAY3WARM PLANNINGWILLBEABLETOHELPREGIONS INTHIS TASK4HEAPPLICATIONOFSWARM PLANNINGIN'RONINGEN4HE.ETHERLANDSHASSHOWNHOWITISCAPABLEOFMAKING VULNERABLEREGIONSMOREROBUSTANDmEXIBLEALLOWINGTHEMTOMANAGETURBULENT ANDUNEXPECTEDCHANGESINASPATIALMANNERASENERGYANDCLIMATECHANGE 3WARMPLANNINGRISESABOVETHESPATIALDESIGNIDEAOFPRESCRIBINGINDETAIL
WHATSHOULDBEDONEWITHEVERYINCHOFTHEAREA)NSTEADITPROVIDESANOPPORTUNITY FORlNDINGTHOSESPECIALINTERVENTIONSTHATCHANGETHEREGIONANDCREATESSPACEFOR SURPRISESTOBEDEALTWITHINTIME4HISALLOWSDESIGNERSTOCONTINUECONNECTING WITHTHEPROFOUNDESTDESIRESOFCITIZENSTHESEARCHFORBEAUTYSAFETYCOMFORTAND THEABSENCEOFWORRYABOUTTHEIRCHILDRENSFUTURE2OGGEMAA )HAVEFOUNDITINTERESTINGTOCOMPARETHEIDEAOFADAPTABILITYTHROUGHSWARM
PLANNINGWITH%MERYAND4RISTS IDEASOFCOPINGWITHTURBULENCE4HEY EMPHASIZE THENEED FORCOMMONVALUESANDCOLLABORATION INORDER TOBUILD INSTITUTIONSTHATCOPEWITHTHENEWUNCERTAINENVIRONMENT9ETEXPERIENCEIN SPATIALDESIGNHASSHOWNTHATCOMMONVALUESANDCOLLABORATIONCANNOTPROVIDE THEFULLANSWER4HELESSONOFSWARMPLANNINGISTHATTHEREISACRUCIALROLETO BEPLAYEDBYINVENTIONCREATIVITYANDORIGINALIDEASWHICHREQUIRETHEACTIVE CONTRIBUTIONOF SINGLE INDIVIDUALSANDOR SMALLGROUPSWITHDIVERGENT EVEN MAVERICKVIEWSATTHERIGHTPLACEANDATTHERIGHTTIME!SDEMONSTRATEDINTHIS CHAPTERTHEMOSTSPECTACULAREXAMPLESOFSPATIALPLANNINGINCOPINGWITHNEW ANDUNANTICIPATEDCHANGEALLARISEASARESULTOFTHEINITIATIVESOFSINGLEINDIVIDUALS WHODIDNOTSUBSCRIBETOTHECOMMONVIEW )SEEASTRONGANALOGYWITH0RIGOGINESIDEAOF @DISSIPATIVESTRUCTURESSEE
#HAPTERINTHISVOLUME !TTHEPOINTOFBIFURCATIONWHERESTRUCTUREISCREATED ONESINGLESMALLmUCTUATIONCAUSESTHEWHOLElELDTOTRANSFORMINONEDIRECTIONOR
ANOTHER3WARMSACTINASIMILARWAY!TTHEPOINTWHERETHINGSREALLYMATTERnAT THEPOINTOFBIFURCATIONnTHEFUTUREISMADEBYINDIVIDUALSNOTCOLLABORATORS
