ABSTRACT
INTHEMIDSTOFTURBULENTWATERS4HEMAINPOINT)WANTTOEXPLOREINTHISCHAPTER ISHOWlNDINGCLARITYINTURBULENCEISSOMETHINGTHATSCENARIOSSEEKTOSECUREAND HOWSCENARIOWORKHELPSTOOBTAINSUCHCLARITY)NRETURN)SUGGESTTHATATTENDING TOCLARITYIMPROVESTHEEFFECTIVENESSOFSCENARIOWORK 4HECHAPTERHASTWOCOMPONENTS)NTHElRSTPART)OVERVIEWSOMETHEORETICAL
CONSIDERATIONSONCLARITYANDTURBULENCE)NTHESECOND)DESCRIBEAWORKSHOP) DESIGNEDANDCONVENEDTHATEXPLOREDTHEWAYINWHICHSCENARIOSHELPTOPRODUCE CLARITYANDHOWATTENDINGTOCLARIlCATIONIMPROVESSCENARIOWORK)NTHECONCLUSION )WRAPTHElRSTTWOPARTSTOGETHERBYSHOWINGTHATEXPLICITLYATTENDINGTOCLARITY INSETTINGEXPECTATIONSFORSCENARIOWORKHELPSUSERSANDFACILITATORSTOUNDERSTAND THEROLESTHATSCENARIOSPLAYINADDRESSINGTURBULENTENVIRONMENTS
Clarity and turbulence
4HECONNECTIONBETWEENTURBULENCEANDCLARITYlRSTBECAMEEVIDENTFORMEWHEN ACOLLEAGUEAND)2AM¤REZAND6ASCONCELLOS BUILDINGONTHEWORKOF!TLAN
SUGGESTEDTHATTHECOMPLEXITYUSUALLYASSOCIATEDWITHTURBULENCEMAYBE BETTERADDRESSEDTHROUGHCLARIlCATIONTHANTHROUGHSIMPLIlCATION!TLAN HADFOUNDTHATSIMPLIlCATIONWORKSINADDRESSING@COMPLICATEDSYSTEMSWHOSE COMPONENTSAREKNOWNANDWHERERELATIONSAMONGTHESECANBEMAPPED4HE DEGREEOFCOMPLICATIONINSUCHSYSTEMSHADTODOWITHHOWSIMPLYONECOULD MAPORMODELTHESYSTEMINQUESTIONnTHEMOREELEMENTSINTHEMAPORMODEL THEMORECOMPLICATEDTHESYSTEM"UT!TLANDISCOVEREDTHATSUCHCONDITIONSARE NOTFOUNDINTHE@COMPLEXITYOFTURBULENTCONDITIONSWHERESOMECOMPONENTS REMAINUNKNOWNTHERELATIONSAMONGTHEMREMAINHIDDENANDORCHANGEDTHE DIMENSIONSOFBOTHCOMPONENTSANDTHERELATIONSAMONGTHEMARECONTINGENT UPONOTHERFACTORSCAUSALITYISNON LINEARANDTHESYSTEMSTHEYCONSTITUTEARE THUS@MESSY!CKOFF OR@WICKED2ITTELAND7EBBER )NASIMILAR WAY3ENGEP INHISPOPULAR4HE&IFTH$ISCIPLINEDISTINGUISHEDBETWEEN DETAILCOMPLEXITYMANYINTERCONNECTEDVARIABLES ANDDYNAMICCOMPLEXITYCAUSE ANDEFFECTARESUBTLEAND@EFFECTSOVERTIMEOFINTERVENTIONSARENOTOBVIOUS !CCORDINGTOTHE/XFORD%NGLISH$ICTIONARY/%$ @TURBULENCERELATESTO
@VIOLENTORUNSTEADYMOVEMENTOFAIRORWATERANDTO@CONmICTORCONFUSION)T ISDERIVEDFROMTHE,ATIN@TURBULENTUSWHICHISALSOTHEROOTFORBOTHTURBIDAND TROUBLE 4HE LABEL @TURBULENT FOR THE TYPEOFENVIRONMENT%MERYAND4RISTWERE
CONCEPTUALIZINGINTHEMIDSSTRUCKTHEMASTHEMOSTAPPROPRIATENAME WHILETHEYmEWTOGETHERTHROUGHTURBULENTWEATHER(ADTHEYBEENINABOAT INSTEADOFANAIRPLANEWEWOULDTODAYTALKABOUT@TROUBLEDWATERSINSTEADOF @TURBULENTENVIRONMENTS)NFACTTHEYBELIEVEDTHELABELSTHEYGAVETOTHEFOUR ENVIRONMENTSANDTHUSTHELABELTURBULENCEWEREINCIDENTAL4RISTETAL P .EVERTHELESSTHEMETAPHORICALPOWEROFTHETURBULENCELABEL-ORGAN HASRESONATEDBROADLYWITHMANAGERSSTRATEGYSCHOLARSANDCONSULTANTS !MADO )TFOLLOWSFROMTHE/%$THATTHENON TURBULENTISPEACEFULSTEADYCONmICTFREE
ANDUNCONFUSED)NTHEWAYTHAT%MERYAND4RISTMEANTTHETERMTURBULENCEWAS ESSENTIALLYACONDITIONOFHIGHRELEVANTUNCERTAINTY4RISTETALPPn MEANINGTHATTHENON LINEARCAUSALITYINTHECOMPLEXCONTEXTOFASYSTEMBECOMES THESALIENTASPECTINTHEPERCEPTIONOFACTORSINTHATlELD /THERCHAPTERSINTHISBOOKDISCUSSHOWSCENARIOSHELPTOSECURE@COMMON
GROUNDWHERESTEADINESSANDSHAREDVALUESCANBEOBTAINEDEVENTRANSITIONALLY n SEE !MADO AND!MBROSE TO ADDRESS TURBULENT CONDITIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENT)NTHISCHAPTER)COMPLEMENTTHISTASKANDFOCUSINSTEADONHOW SCENARIOSATTEMPTTOCLARIFYTHECONFUSIONTHATRELEVANTUNCERTAINTYENTAILSBY FOCUSINGONTHESENSEDANDFELTCOGNITIONTHATAESTHETICUNDERSTANDINGCONSISTS OF 7HATISNOTCONFUSEDISCLEAR4HISCHAPTERTHUSCONCERNSHOWSCENARIOSIN
ADDRESSINGTURBULENCEOBTAINCLARITY
Clarity
#LARITYANDITSADJECTIVE@CLEARDENOTESAYSTHE/%$EASYSEEINGHEARINGOR UNDERSTANDING LACK OF DOUBT TRANSPARENCY4HUS @CLEARING THE AIRMEANS @IMPROVINGATENSESITUATIONBYFRANKDISCUSSIONWHEN@THEWEATHERCLEARSIT @BECOMESlNEAND@INTHECLEARMEANS@NOLONGERINDANGER #LARITYn FROMTHE,ATIN @CLARITASnDENOTES LUMINOSITY LIMPIDITY TRANS
PARENCY &OREXAMPLECLEARWATERINAPONDALLOWSTHELIGHTTHROUGHHELPINGUSTOSEE
THElSHINITANDTHEROCKSANDPLANTSATTHEBOTTOM 3UCHLIMPIDANDTRANSPARENTWATERISOPPOSEDTOAFAST MOVINGTURBIDAND
OPAQUEDOWNPOURmOODWITHTHEUNEXPECTEDSWIRLSTHAT @TURBULENCEENTAILS 6ERYTURBULENTWATERFOAMSANDBECOMESSOWHITETHATNOTHINGBUTTHEFOAM ISVISIBLEnHENCETHEEXPRESSION@PERMANENTWHITEWATERGIVENBY0IERRE7ACK TOTHETURBULENTENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONSTHAT3HELLWOULDENCOUNTER AFTERTHE/RGANIZATIONOF0ETROLEUM%XPORTING#OUNTRIES/0%# WASFORMED 4HE@PERMANENTPARTOF7ACKSDESCRIPTIONREFERREDTOTHEFEELINGTHATTHESALIENT TURBULENTCONTEXTWOULDPERSISTWHENCOMPAREDTOTHERELATIVELYCLEARANDCERTAIN CONDITIONS3HELLHADENJOYEDINITSCONTEXTUPTOTHEN 3INCECLARITYISCLOSELYRELATEDTOLUMINOSITYTHROWINGLIGHTUPONSOMETHING
CLARIlESITANDENLIGHTENSOURCOMPREHENSION)TLIFTSTHEWEIGHTOFDARKNESSAND THUSPROVIDESA@LIGHTERAPPRECIATIONOFWHATITHELPSUSTOSEEBETTER#LARITY ENABLESUNDERSTANDINGBYRENDERINGTHATWHICHISCLARIlEDTRANSPARENTBYREMOVING OPACITYANDBYPROVIDINGTHEOPPORTUNITYTOSEEWHATTURBULENCEATTEMPTSTOHIDE FROMUS
How good fiction contributes to clarity in our minds
)NHER$REAMINGBYTHE"OOK %LAINE3CARRY(ARVARD5NIVERSITYPROFESSOR IN%NGLISHAND!ESTHETICSEXPLORESHOWPOETSANDWRITERSHELPREADERSTOCONSTRUCT CLEARIMAGESINTHEIRMINDS3HESUGGESTSTHATINREADINGLITERATUREWEFORMMENTAL IMAGESTHATARENOTONLY@VIVIDBUTACTUALLY@RADIANT!SRADIANCEISMADEPOSSIBLE BYPOWERFULLIGHTSHEFEELSWEBECOMEENLIGHTENEDINREADINGTHISWORKCREATING IMAGESTHATINOURMINDSBECOMEALIVEnPERHAPSMOREALIVEINOURMINDSSHE SUGGESTSTHANTHEIMAGESOFLIVEPERSONSINOURIMMEDIATESURROUNDINGSWITH WHOMWEACTUALLYRELATE )BELIEVETHATEFFECTIVESCENARIOSNEEDTOBELIKEGOODLITERATUREnTHEYNEEDTO
BEREADBYUSERSINWAYSTHATHELPTHEIRMINDSRENDERFUTURES@MOREREALTHANREAL "YTHIS)MEANMOREREALIMAGINEDFUTURESTHANANACTUALLYREALEXISTINGPRESENT SOTHATTHEFUTURESARECLARIlEDINTHEMINDINORDERTOENSURETHATWEATTENDTO THEM/CASIO !SVANDER(EIJDENPPn OBSERVESSCENARIOS @THESTRATEGICPERSPECTIVESONTHEENVIRONMENTOFABUSINESSIDEA ARE@EXPRESSEDAS INTERNALLYCONSISTENTANDCHALLENGINGNARRATIVEDESCRIPTIONSOFPOSSIBLEFUTURESIN
THISEXTERNALWORLD3CENARIOSTENDTOBEPRESENTEDANDSHAREDASSTORIES)F3CARRY ISCORRECTEFFECTIVESCENARIOSWILLBELIKEWELL WRITTENlCTIONINCITINGUSTO IMAGINETHEIRSUBJECTSMORECLEARLYTHANWEMANAGETOTHINKABOUTTHEIMMEDIATE REALITYAROUNDUS )N LITERATURE KNOWLEDGEMEANING ANDOR APPRECIATION ARE CO PRODUCED
BETWEENWRITERANDREADER4HEYENGAGEWITHEACHOTHERINAFORMOFCONVERSATION VANDER(EIJDEN 4HISISALSOTHECASEBETWEENSCENARIOPRODUCERAND SCENARIOREADERnTHE@CONSUMEROFTHESCENARIOSCO PRODUCESPLAUSIBLEFUTURES HELPEDBYTHE@SUPPLIEROFTHESCENARIOSTORIES3CENARIOSINTHISSENSEPLAYTHE SAMEROLEASNOVELS!S#ARLOS&UENTESP AMAJOR-EXICANLITERARY CRITICPUTIT@7HATTHENISANOVELOTHERTHANTELLINGTHATWHICHCANNOTBETOLD OTHERWISE!NOVELISAVERBALSEARCHOFTHATWHICHAWAITSBEINGWRITTEN4HE NOVELLIKETHESCENARIOENABLESCONVERSATIONALRELATIONSBETWEENREADERSANDTHE WRITERINREADINGANDRE READING@.EVERAGAINSHOULDWEHAVEONLYONEVOICEOR READING)MAGINATIONISREALANDITSLANGUAGESMULTIPLE&UENTESP 3CENARIOSASNOVELSCANTHUSBEUNDERSTOODASSEARCHESOFTENEXPRESSEDIN
WRITINGASSTORIESEVENIFOFTENHEAVILYILLUSTRATEDOFTHATWHICHISYETTOBE IMAGINED4HESElCTIONSARERELATIONSBETWEENANENABLERnTHEWRITERORSCENARIST nANDTHEREADERORUSEROFTHESCENARIOS WHERETHEWRITERENABLESTHEREADER TOIMAGINETOFORMTHECLEARENLIGHTENINGEVENRADIANTMENTALIMAGESOFWHAT MIGHTHAPPENSOTHATTHESECLEARLYIMAGEDFUTURESTAKEONA@REALISTICPOSITIONIN THEATTENTIVEMINDOFTHEUSER 3CHWARTZP STATESTHAT
)NTHESAMEWAYTHEPROFESSIONOF@SCENARISTESCENARIO MAKERIN&RENCHlLM DESCRIBES ITSELFAS @TRANSITORYANDPRELIMINARYWRITING -ONNIERAND2OCHE P ANDSCENARIOSAS@TRUTHFULLYINGOR@ALITERARYGENRETHATDOESNOTEXIST P 4HUSINDOCUMENTINGSOCIALREALITIES@SCENARIOSAREBOTHINDISPENSABLEAND PROBLEMATICP 4HEIRJOBIS@NOTTOCREATE46PROGRAMMESBUT46AUDIENCES P
Clarity and aesthetics
#HURCHMANP SUGGESTEDTHATCLARITYSHOULDBECONSIDEREDTOBEAN AESTHETICCATEGORY)UNDERSTANDAESTHETICSASTHEBRANCHOF7ESTERNPHILOSOPHY THATSTUDIESTHOSEFORMSOFUNDERSTANDINGPERCEPTIONCONCEPTIONANDEXPERIENCE WHICHWEQUALIFYOFTENAFTERTHEFACT WITHADJECTIVESSUCHAS@BEAUTIFUL@UGLY
@ELEGANTOR@REPULSIVE!ESTHETICKNOWLEDGEDEPENDSLARGELYUPONSENSINGAND FEELINGUPONEMPATHYANDINTUITIONANDUPONRELATINGSENSEPERCEPTIONWITH CONCEPTION 4HERE ISGROWINGEVIDENCE FROMCOGNITIVEPSYCHOLOGYANDNEUROBIOLOGY
$AMASIO THATAESTHETICFORMSOFKNOWINGPRECEDEOTHERFORMSANDSHAPE HOWTHESEOTHERFORMSOFKNOWINGOPERATE4HISHADALREADYBEENPROPOSEDBY PHILOSOPHERSSUCHAS#ASSIRER AND,ANGER &OR THESE AUTHORS THEPATTERN RECOGNITION INVOLVED IN SENSEPERCEPTION
PRECEDESTHEFORMALIZATIONOF THESE INTOCONCEPTSANDTHEIRMANIFESTATIONAS WORDS)BELIEVETHATTHISCHARACTERISTICOFPRECEDINGOTHERFORMSOFCOGNITIONHAS PLAYEDANIMPORTANTROLEINEXTENDINGTHESCOPEOFAESTHETICSWELLBEYONDTHE DOMAINOFART)NMATHEMATICSFOREXAMPLE@THEMOTIVATIONALAESTHETICDOESNOT MERELYCATCHTHEMATHEMATICIANSATTENTIONRATHERITSERVESTHENECESSARYROLEOF FRAMINGTHEVERYWAYPROBLEMSANDINITIALCONJECTURESAREIDENTIlED3INCLAIR P )NTHESAMEWAY3CHLAGGWHOANALYSEDANDORGANIZEDAVAILABLERESEARCHON
THEROLEOFAESTHETICSINTHEREALMOF!MERICANLAWPROPOSEDTHAT
!NDINANALYSINGHOWMODERNITYHASCOMETOREmECTUPONITSELFANDCOMPARING HISVIEWSTOTHOSEOF"ECKAND'IDDENS,ASCHP CONCLUDEDTHAT@7ELL BEFORETHEPOST TRADITIONALSOCIETYOFTHEPASTTWODECADESTHElRSTINSTANTIATION OFREmEXIVEMODERNITYWASTHROUGHTHEAESTHETIC )NADDITIONTOHOWJUDGESINTHE53INTERPRETTHELAWHOWMATHEMATICIANS
WORKSEEALSO0ENROSE ANDHOWREmEXIVEMODERNIZATIONOPERATESAESTHETICS OVERRECENTYEARSHASALSOBEENAPPLIEDTO
s UNDERSTANDORGANIZATIONS2AM¤REZ3TRATI ,INDQUIST2AM¤REZAND9OUNG ANDHOWPEOPLEINTHEMBEHAVE ANDUNDERSTANDTHEM$EANETAL
s HOW ORGANIZATIONS PRESENT THEMSELVES 3CHMITT AND 3IMONDSON $ICKINSONAND3VENSEN HOWTHEYAREEXPERIENCEDBYOTHERSDESPITE THESEEFFORTS$OWNS ANDHOWSOMETHINKTHEYOUGHTTOBEEXPERIENCED 'UILLETDE-ONTHOUX
s HOWURBANPOLICYISENACTED&LOYD s HOWEXHIBITIONSAREORGANIZED,IND s HOWTHELAWISEXPERIENCED%LLIOTT3CHLAGG s HOWFORESTSAREMANAGED'OBSTER s HOWPATTERNSOFDECISION MAKINGAT.!3!COMETOBEINEFFECTIVE&ELDMAN
s HOWSERVICElRMSSELECTPERSONNELIN'LASGOW7ARHURSTETAL s HOWDIGITALTECHNOLOGYISASSESSED"EARDON s HOWFORMULAEAREEVALUATEDINTHEORETICALPHYSICS&ARMELO s HELPUNDERSTANDWHICHMODESOFBUSINESSINNOVATIONMANAGERSPREFER2AM¤REZ AND!RVIDSSON
Links between scenarios and aesthetics
4AYLORAND(ANSEN OFFER FOURCATEGORIESOFORGANIZATIONAL AESTHETICS RESEARCH4HEIRFRAMEWORKRESTSONTWOCRITERIATHECONTENTINSTRUMENTALVERSUS AESTHETIC ANDTHEMETHODARTISTICVERSUSINTELLECTUAL EMPLOYED4HUSONECAN USEANARTISTICMETHODFORINSTRUMENTALORAESTHETICPURPOSESORONECANUSEAN INTELLECTUALMETHODFORINSTRUMENTALORAESTHETICPURPOSES 4HISCHAPTERlTSTHE@INTELLECTUALnAESTHETICAGENDAINTHE4AYLORn(ANSEN
FRAMEWORK&ORTHEMTHEINTELLECTUALnAESTHETICCATEGORYINCLUDESWORKON
s INDUSTRIESANDPRODUCTSTHATAREFUNDAMENTALLYAESTHETICINNATURENOTTHE PURPOSEHERE
s AESTHETICFORMSWITHINORGANIZATIONSPARTLYTHEPURPOSEHERE AND s THEDIRECTSENSORYEXPERIENCEOFDAY TO DAYREALITYINORGANIZATIONSMOREOF THEPURPOSEHERE
)NTHISlRSTPARTOFTHECHAPTER)HAVETRIEDTOSHOWTHATSCENARIOSAREEXPERIENCED BYTHOSEWHOHAVENOTPRODUCEDTHEMASVERYREALANDIMAGINEDSTORIESABOUT POSSIBLEFUTURES)HAVEPROPOSEDTHATTHEMEASUREOFPERFORMANCEFORSCENARIO EFFECTIVENESSRESTSONCLARITY!ND)HAVEARGUEDCLARITYISANAESTHETICCATEGORY 3OTHECENTRALPROPOSITIONTHATTHISCHAPTERCONTRIBUTESISTHATSCENARIOSHAVEAN AESTHETICASPECTnCLARITYnWHICHISIMPORTANTFORTHEIREFFECTIVENESSSINCETHIS AESTHETICELEMENTISAPPREHENDEDORPERCEIVEDTHROUGHSENSESINAFEELINGLIMBIC PRE RATIONALMANNERWHICH)EXPLOREINTHENEXTPARTOFTHECHAPTER )NTHESECONDPARTOFTHECHAPTER)DESCRIBEAWORKSHOP)ORGANIZEDANDRAN
TOASSESSTHEABOVECONNECTIONSWHICH)HEREREPORTINPUBLICFORTHElRSTTIME) DIDTHISASPARTOFMYASSIGNMENTASAVISITINGPROFESSOROFSCENARIOSANDCORPORATE STRATEGYIN3HELLSSCENARIOSTEAMDURINGTO!TTHATTIMETHESCENARIOS TEAMIN3HELLWASANOPEN ENDEDCREATIVEENQUIRINGCOMMUNITYANDITWASWELL ACCEPTEDFORUSTOEXPLORETOPICSTHATCONTRIBUTEDTOKEEP3HELLATTHELEADINGEDGE OFSCENARIOSTHINKINGANDPRACTICE
/N.OVEMBER+EESVANDER(EIJDEN,OUISVANDER-ERWEAND)MET FORTWOHOURSTODESIGNTHETHREE DAYWORKSHOPTOEXPLORETHE@ARTOF ASPECTSOF SCENARIOPRACTICEANDTHINKING7EAGREEDALLPARTICIPANTSWOULDDOPREPARATORY READINGONTHEWORKOF6ICKERSS @APPRECIATIVEBEHAVIOURANDTHEWORKOF 3CHLAGG 3TRATI AND2AM¤REZ ONAESTHETICSSOWECOULDALL STARTWITHACOMMONUNDERSTANDINGOFHOWAESTHETICSINFORMSSOCIALPROCESSES
Day 1 of the workshop: Introductions and positions
4HETHREE DAYWORKSHOPONAESTHETICSANDSCENARIOPRACTICEANDTHINKINGWAS HELDIN,ONDONONTO-ARCHTHEATTENDEESARELISTEDINTHEAPPENDIXTO THISCHAPTER !FTERINTRODUCINGEVERYONEANDTHEIRTAKEONTHEROLEOFAESTHETICS INSCENARIOS,OUISVANDER-ERWEMADEAPRESENTATIONWHICH)HERESUMMARIZE ASFOLLOWS
!DISCUSSIONFOLLOWEDTHATISNOTREPORTEDHERE 4HISlRSTDAYOFTHEWORKSHOPCONlRMEDFORMETHATBOTHCONCEPTSnCLARITY
ANDAESTHETICUNDERSTANDINGnRESONATEDWITHTHEGROUPOFEXPERIENCEDSCENARIO PRACTITIONERSPARTICIPATINGINTHEWORKSHOP4HECONCEPTUALARCHITECTURETHAT AESTHETICSOFFERSnASDESCRIBEDINTHElRSTPARTOFTHISCHAPTERnMAKESITPOSSIBLE TOARTICULATEASPECTSOFSCENARIOPRACTICESTHATHADEITHERBEENTAKENFORGRANTED LEFTINTHEBACKGROUNDORHADNOTBEENATTENDEDTOASSOMETHINGTHATMATTERSFOR SCENARIOWORKTOBEEFFECTIVE !SARESULTDAYONEOFTHEWORKSHOPCONlRMEDFORMETHATBRINGINGTHESE
ASPECTSANDORAPPRECIATIONSINTOTHEFOREGROUNDOFSCENARIOSTHATPRACTITIONERS CANATTENDTOCONNECTSPEOPLEENGAGINGINSCENARIOWORKTOEACHOTHERINWAYS THEYlNDSIGNIlCANT(IGHLIGHTINGTHEAESTHETICSINSCENARIOWORKENABLESAUSEFUL CONVERSATIONTHATALLOWSGOODBUTDIVERSEPRACTICEOFSCENARIOSINDIFFERENTSETTINGS TOBECOMPARED4HECLARITYASPECTOFTHESCENARIOSAESTHETICINEFFECTCREATESA COMMONGROUNDTHATEXPERIENCEDSCENARIOSPRACTITIONERSCANUSETOUNDERSTAND THEIRWORKMOREFULLY
Day 2 of the workshop: Linking aesthetics and scenarios
)NTHESECONDDAYOFTHEWORKSHOPTHREETHEMESEMERGEDTHATARERELEVANTTOTHIS CHAPTERWRAPPINGRENDERINGANDRECONNECTING
Wrapping /NESUGGESTIONWASTHATPERHAPSITISNOTHELPFULTOTHINKOFAESTHETICSINTERMS OFA@DIMENSION4HISISJUSTONEMETAPHORANDARATHERLIMITINGONEATTHAT )NSTEADIFAS2AM¤REZSUGGESTED AESTHETICSINORGANIZATIONSOFTENCONSISTS OF@WRAPPINGFORMSCENARIOPRACTITIONERSHAVETOEXPLICITLYATTENDTOHOWWEWRAP ADISCUSSIONINASYNDICATEROOMSOTHATINTHEPLENARYTHEDISCUSSIONENHANCES CLARITYOFTHATWHICHISBEINGADDRESSED
Rendering (ARDIN4IBBSSUGGESTEDTHATAESTHETICSHELPSSCENARIOSWITHRENDERING@2ENDER ISAWORDFULLOFMEANINGS$EPENDINGUPONTHECONTEXTITCANMEAN@CONVEY @RETURN@GIVE@INTERPRETOREXPRESSORTRANSLATE@PROVIDE@DISPENSEORADMINISTER ORDO EG JUSTICE @MAKE SOMEONEHAPPY @PRODUCEEFFECTIVELY @PROVIDE RECOGNITIONHOMAGE @2ENDERDOWNISUSEDINCHEESE MAKINGANDINVOLVES TAKINGOUTTHEESSENTIALSBYMELTINGTHUSTHEFATISEXTRACTEDBYHEATING@2ENDER
UPINVOLVESSURRENDERINGAFORTRESSORHANDINGOVERATREASURE(ARDINTOLDTHE GROUPTHATRENDERINGISALSOANIMPORTANTPARTOFARCHITECTURALPRACTICE 4HUSINSCENARIOPRACTICEONERENDERSANORIGINALUNDERSTANDINGTOOTHERS
FORWHOMITEVOKESCOMPARABLE FEELING!S THIS FEELINGEXTENDSWELLBEYOND WORDSONEMUSTBEATTENTIVETOTHEVEHICLEOFTHISRENDERINGTHATISTHESELF4HIS PROMPTED+EESVANDER(EIJDENTOPOINTOUTTHATSOMEOFTHEBESTPRESENTERSOF SCENARIOSSUCHAS0IERRE7ACKATTENDTORHYTHMANDTONEASTHEYSPEAKASWELL ASTOSILENCEANDREPETITIONANDTOCAPTIVATINGMETAPHORSANDIMAGESTHATCAPTURE THEPATTERNTHEYWANTTORENDER)TISTHISPATTERNINTHEIRSTORIESTHATTHEYHOPE WILLCONNECTORRESONATE!MADO WITHTHEAUDIENCE3UCHPEOPLE +EESSUGGESTEDUSENOTONLYTHESTORYBUTALSOTHESTORYTELLINGANDTHEMSELVESAS AGENTSOFCONNECTION
Reconnecting !NOTHERVIEWINTHEDISCUSSIONWASTHATINDEALINGWITHINTRACTABLEPROBLEMS PEOPLERARELYHAVEACOMPLETEAPPRECIATIONOFWHATTHEWHOLESITUATIONMAY ENTAIL)NSITUATIONSTHATAS)SAIDATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHISCHAPTER!CKOFFCALLEDA @MESSAND2ITTEL@WICKEDPROBLEMSTHESITUATIONISILLDElNEDANDNOTSTRUCTURED 4OADDRESSSUCHWICKEDMESSESONESEEKSPATTERNSTHATCONNECTCO PRODUCING WHAT4RISTCALLED@COMMONGROUND4HISISASHAREDMEANINGOFAWHOLETHAT PROVIDESWHAT-ATURANAAND6ARELA CALLEDAN@IDENTITYASUPPLEAND ADAPTABLECONTINUITYOFTHESELFINRELATIONTOTHEOTHERTHATENSURESVIABILITY)T ISTHISAUTO POIETICCO PRODUCEDVIABILITYTHATALLOWSTHESYSTEMINQUESTIONTO LIVEONPREVENTINGITFROMFRAGMENTINGASWOULDBETHECASEINMOVINGFROM TURBULENCETOHYPER TURBULENCEnSEEFOREXAMPLE#HAPTERINTHISBOOK AND DISAPPEARING4HE@PATTERNSTHATCONNECTCONNECTINTWOWAYSTHEYCONNECTTHE ENACTINGSUBJECTSTOEACHOTHERANDTHEYCONNECTTHESUBJECTSTOTHEOBJECTTHEY AREJOINTLYENACTING0UTSIMPLYWITHOUTTHEOTHERONENOLONGEREXISTSnWHICH ISWHYISOLATIONPUNISHMENTUNIVERSALLYFROMTHE@GOTOYOURROOMTOACHILDTO ISOLATIONCELLSINPRISONSISCONSIDEREDSEVERE 3OINTHISPERSPECTIVEINCONSTRUCTINGSCENARIOSWHATWEAREACTUALLYDOING
ISEXPLORINGANDCREATINGFORMINGANDCONNECTINGNOTlNDING NEWWORLDS)N OTHERWORDSWERENDERANEWAWORLDBYMANIFESTINGOURCONNECTIONSTOTHAT WORLDAS@NEW 7ESHOWANDEXPERIENCEAND INTERPRETPOSSIBLEWORLDS INTUITIVELYnAND
WETRYTOGETPEOPLETOEXPERIENCEHOWITWOULDFEELTOBEINTHEM)T ISNO ACCIDENTTHATASSCENARIODESIGNERSWEBUILDINSOMANYLEARNINGJOURNEYSFOR WORKSHOPPARTICIPANTS7EMAYTHENASKTHEMTORETURNFROMTHESEEXPLORATIONS OFPLAUSIBLEFUTURESWITHPOEMSORIMAGESNOTWITHWORDSALONETOEXPRESSWHAT THEYCONNECTEDWITH7ESEEKTOINSPIREILLUMINATINGCLARIFYINGEXPERIENCESAND TOELUCIDATEPATTERNSTHATCONNECTANEW
The aesthetics of scenario purpose
4HEGROUPBRAINSTORMEDTHEPURPOSESOFSCENARIOPROJECTSINWHICHTHEYHADBEEN INVOLVEDORKNEWABOUT4HELISTWECAMEUPWITHIS
s MAKINGSENSEOFINTRACTABLEPROBLEMS s REDUCINGCOMPLEXITY s REFRAMINGASITUATIONORDISSOLVINGAPROBLEM s lNISHINGAPROBLEM s SURFACINGASSUMPTIONSTOTESTTHEM s TESTINGSTRATEGICOPTIONS s WINDTUNNELLINGAGIVENSTRATEGY s TEAMBUILDING s CHANGINGORGANIZATIONALCULTURE s ANTICIPATINGEVENTSPARTICULARLYWHENFORECASTSARENOTRELIABLE s ENTERTAINING s SENSITIZING s ENGAGINGSTAKEHOLDERS s ENHANCINGORGANIZATIONALLEARNING s MAPPINGASSESSINGUNCERTAINTY s CREATINGABETTERWORLDORFUTURE s CHALLENGINGTHEOFlCIALFUTUREGROUPTHINK s INCREASINGFUTUREORIENTATION s STORYTELLINGOFTHESOURCESOFTHEFUTURE s FACILITATINGEMOTIONALCHANGE s UNDERSTANDINGSYSTEMICBEHAVIOUR s BUILDINGCONlDENCETOACT s DEVELOPINGLANGUAGETOARTICULATETHINKING s RENDERINGDISAGREEMENTSASSETS s HELPINGDISAGREEMENTSTOBECOMEMORECONSTRUCTIVE s ENABLINGANDELICITINGINNOVATIONSANDOPTIONS s PREPARINGEFFORTSTOMOVEBEYONDSCENARIOSSIMULATIONSWARGAMESTRAINER COCKPITnRElNINGCASES
7EDECIDEDTOPUTTHELISTOFPURPOSESONHEXAGONSWITHMAGNETSONTHEMANDTO CLUSTERTHESEPURPOSESINTOFAMILIESTHATFELTTOUSASIFTHEYHADTHESAMETYPEOF PURPOSE4HERESULTOFTHECLUSTERINGnFORWHICHTHEREWASAREMARKABLELEVELOF CONSISTENCYnISSEENIN&IGURE 7ETHENORGANIZEDTHECLUSTERSINATRIANGLETHATFOLLOWS6ICKERSS IDEA
OFTHEELEMENTSNEEDEDTOMAKEJUDGMENTSnINSTRUMENTALACTIONORIENTEDTO DIRECTCONCLUDEANDCLOSE COUPLINGCREATINGRELATIONSANDTHEIRNORMS AND APPRECIATIVESENSINGWHATTHECONTEXTMIGHTHOLDINTHEFUTURE
)N&IGURETHEREALMOFWHATISPOSSIBLETODOISDESIGNATEDBYTHEWHITESPACE ANDACTUALPOSSIBLEINTERVENTIONSBYTHEGREYORBLACKFORMSWITHINIT
Appreciating
Instrumental: directing
Coupling
7ETHENRETURNEDTOTHEORIGINALCLUSTERINGOFSCENARIOPURPOSESANDATTEMPTED TODISTILWHATTHESCENARIOADDRESSINGTHATTYPEOFPURPOSEWOULDFEELLIKEFORA PARTICIPANTnIFAESTHETICQUALITYWERETHESINGLEMOSTIMPORTANTPURPOSEOFA SCENARIOINTERVENTION7EALSORELATEDTHESEAESTHETICAPPRECIATIONSTO6ICKERSS APPRECIATIVEJUDGEMENTCATEGORIES4HERESULTISFOUNDIN&IGUREWHATISIN BIGGERFONTTEXTISTHEAESTHETICASPECTOFEACHOFTHETHREEELEMENTSOFMAKING DECISIONS
7ETHENMOVEDONTOWHATCRITERIACOULDBEUSEDINORDERTOJUDGEEACHCLUSTER AS@APPROPRIATE4HElNDINGSOFTHISDISCUSSIONWERESOPOWERFULTHATONEOFTHE MOSTEXPERIENCEDPARTICIPANTSINTHEWORKSHOPCALLEDAMAJORCORPORATECUSTOMER DURINGACOFFEEBREAKANDREDESIGNEDAPROCESSPLANNEDFORTHEFOLLOWINGWEEK 4HECOMMENTMADEWAS@)NOWREALLYKNOWWHYTHESEPEOPLEHAVEBEENSTUCK 4HEYARESTUCKINONEOFTHECLUSTERSAND)MUSTMOVETHEMINTOANOTHERONEIF WEAREGOINGTOGETTHEIRSITUATIONUNBLOCKED4HERESULTSAREMANIFESTEDINITALICS IN&IGURE 2ETURNINGAGAIN TOBOTHTHEORIGINALCLUSTERINGAND6ICKERSS JUDGEMENT
TYPOLOGYWECONSIDEREDTHETYPEOFTEMPERAMENTTHATWOULDBEMOSTATEASEWITH EACHCLUSTERANDHOWTHISWOULDBEMANIFESTEDAGAININ6ICKERSSTYPES7EFELT
THATTHISWOULDBEFARMOREHELPFULTHANTHE-YERS"RIGGSOR"ELBINFRAMEWORKS THATSOMEPRACTITIONERSHAVEUSEDTORESEARCHSCENARIOWORKEFFECTIVENESS)SLEIETAL &ORASENSINGPURPOSETHETEMPERAMENTWOULDBEEXPLORATORYCURIOUSAND APPRECIATIVEFORTHENORMINGnCOUPLINGPURPOSEITWOULDBECOLLEGIALEMPHATIC ANDOTHER CENTRED AND FOR THE STRATEGICnDIRECTIVEPURPOSE THE TEMPERAMENT WOULDBEPRAGMATICCOURAGEOUSANDCENTREDONBENElTSANDRISKSANDACTIONABLE INITIATIVES
!LLWORKSHOPPARTICIPANTSHADEXTENSIVESCENARIO MAKINGSCENARIO THINKINGAND SCENARIO USINGEXPERIENCE!LLWEREFAMILIARWITHTHEMAJORARTICLESANDBOOKS ONTHESUBJECT.OOTHERSIMILARGROUPINTHEWORLDCOULDCLAIMTOBEMORE KNOWLEDGEABLETHANTHISGROUPONSCENARIOSALTHOUGHSEVERALOTHEREQUIVALENT GROUPSCOULDBECONVENED!LLPARTICIPANTSHADASSIDUOUSLYREADEXTENSIVEREADINGS ONAESTHETICSANDONAPPRECIATIVEJUDGEMENTCIRCULATEDBEFORETHEWORKSHOP )NOTHERWORDSTHECONDITIONSFORRELATINGAESTHETICSTOSCENARIOTHINKINGAND PRACTICEWEHADTHUSOBTAINEDCOULDHARDLYBESTRONGER
4HEGROUPGAVEFACEVALIDITYTOTHECONNECTIONBETWEENAESTHETICSTHECLARITY ITARTICULATESANDSCENARIOS4HUSFROMA0OPPERIANPOINTOFVIEWIFTHISGROUP REJECTEDTHEHYPOTHESISTHATAESTHETICSISHELPFULTOSCENARIOTHINKINGANDPRACTICE ITWOULDBESAFETOCONCLUDETHATTHEREJECTIONWOULDAPPLYTOMANYMORESCENARIO CASESANDTHEIRRELEVANTPURPOSESTHANTHOSEREPRESENTEDINTHEWORKSHOP"UTTHIS WASNOTTHECASE)NSTEADTHOSEINTHEWORKSHOPSUSTAINEDTHEIDEATHATAESTHETICS APPEARSTOMATTERINSCENARIOEFFECTIVENESS)NEFFECTTHEGROUPUNANIMOUSLYFELT THATTHEWORKSHOPHADSHEDNEWLIGHTONSCENARIOTHINKINGANDPRACTICE4HROUGH THEWORKSHOPWEFOUNDTHATTHEOLDADAGETHATSCENARIOSAREAN@ARTANDNOTONLY A@SCIENCENOWHADARATIONALEGROUNDEDINAESTHETICSWHICHHADNOTPREVIOUSLY BEENEXAMINEDEXPLICITLYANDSYSTEMATICALLY -AKINGOURSELVESATTENTIVE TOAESTHETICKNOWINGANDOURWILLINGNESS TO
CONSIDERTHEINFORMATIONTHATTHISFORMOFKNOWINGPRODUCESHELPEDUSTOCLARIFY COMMONPURPOSESOFSCENARIOWORKBYlNDINGNEW@PATTERNSTHATCONNECTWHAT WEHADEXPERIENCEDINOURPROFESSIONALPRACTICE7ERELATEDTHESETOTHETHREE ELEMENTSNEEDEDTOMAKEJUDGEMENTSIDENTIlEDBY6ICKERS/URENQUIRYMADE USRESPONSIVETOPATTERNSCONNECTINGEACHOFOURDEEPLYFELTEXPERIENCESTOTHOSE OFTHEOTHERSANDASSUCHBROADENEDANDDEEPENEDOURUNDERSTANDINGOFSCENARIO WORK !TTENDINGTOTHEAESTHETICQUALITIESOFOUROWNUNDERSTANDINGSUCHASGOOD
SCENARIOWORKPRODUCEDCLARITY"ATESONP FAMOUSLYSTATEDTHAT@BY AESTHETIC)MEANRESPONSIVETOTHEPATTERNTHATCONNECTS)NTHElRSTPARTOFTHIS CHAPTER)USEDTHEANALOGYOFTHENOVELINLITERATURETOHIGHLIGHTTHEAESTHETICSOF SCENARIOWORK!S7ILLIAMSPPn PUTIT
(AVINGINTRODUCEDTHEWORKSHOPINTHESECONDPARTOFTHISCHAPTER)CANNOWSAY THATCLARITYHELPSNOTONLYWITHTHEIMAGININGMINDBUTWITHTHECONVERSATIONS AMONGTHOSEMINDSTOJOINTLYPRODUCEIMAGINEDlGURESCONSIDEREDPLAUSIBLE 4HUSCLARITYALSOHELPSTOCO PRODUCECOMMONGROUND 4HISINSIGHTABOUTCLARITYSROLEINCREATINGCOMMONGROUNDISIMPORTANT
FORDECISION MAKERSCOPINGWITHTURBULENTCONDITIONS4URBULENTENVIRONMENTS AREOFTENEXPERIENCEDNOTONLYASVERYUNCLEARBUTALSOASDISCONCERTING3OIN
ADDRESSINGTURBULENCEPEOPLESEEKMETHODSTHATHELPTHEMTOlNDORPRODUCE CLARITY!S)HAVETRIEDTOSHOWINTHISCHAPTERTHESCENARIOMETHODOFFERSTHIS POSSIBILITYOFCLARITY!TTENDINGTOTHISSEARCHFORCLARITYEXPLICITLYHELPSSCENARIO PRACTITIONERSTOPRODUCEORlNDCOMMONGROUNDWITHOTHERS
s 'ERARD$RENTH3HELL s "ARBARA(EINZENINDEPENDENTSCENARIOSCONSULTANT s ,ENNART.ORDFORSSCENARIOSCONSULTANT s (ARDIN4IBBSINDEPENDENTSCENARIOSCONSULTANT s 2AFAEL2AM¤REZ3HELLAND(%#0ARIS s !NGELA7ILKINSON3HELL s ,OUISVANDER-ERWEINDEPENDENTSCENARIOSCONSULTANT s +EESVANDER(EIJDENEX 3HELL5NIVERSITYOF3TRATHCLYDE s -ARSHALL9OUNG,EADERSHIP0ROGRAMME$IRECTOR/XFORD5NIVERSITY
