ABSTRACT
ADDRESSTURBULENCE7ACKAP )NAWAYTHATISCOMPATIBLEWITH%MERY AND4RIST 7ACKLEARNEDTOVIEWCONTEXTASANINTERCONNECTEDSYSTEM WITHINWHICHITWASPOSSIBLETOIDENTIFYPREDETERMINEDELEMENTS7HILE7ACKIS RECOGNIZEDASONEOFTHEPIONEERSINSCENARIOPLANNING7ACKSINCLUSIONOFSYSTEMS ANALYSISWITHINTHEPROCESSOFSCENARIOBUILDINGTOHELPREVEALTHECONDITIONSTHAT DRIVEPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSINTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTVANDER(EIJDENET AL ISLESSWELLKNOWN)TISTHISASPECTOFHISWORK)EXPLOREINTHISCHAPTER 7ACKREALIZEDTHATUNTILNOW UNDETECTEDSYSTEMICCONDITIONSEMERGINGFROM
INTERACTINGSYSTEMICSTRUCTURESWEREIMPORTANTDRIVINGFORCESTHATCONTRIBUTE TOTHECREATIONOFTURBULENCE7ACKUNDERSTOODTHATITWASPOSSIBLETOCONVEY SYSTEMICUNDERSTANDINGOFPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSTHROUGHASTORYABOUTTHE
FUTURE(ESUGGESTEDTHATONCEIDENTIlEDANDUNDERSTOODPREDETERMINEDELEMENTS WOULDENHANCEANORGANIZATIONSABILITYTOPLANSTRATEGICALLYBYPROVIDINGTHE UNDERPINNINGLOGICOFTHESPECIlCENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONSSOTHATABUSINESS PLANCOULDADDRESSTHEM 0REDETERMINEDELEMENTSARENOTPREDICTIONSORFORECASTS!PREDICTIONISA
MOREORLESSWELL SUBSTANTIATEDGUESSBYSOMEONEONWHATHEORSHETHINKSWILL HAPPENINTHEFUTURE!FORECASTISESTIMATIONORCALCULATIONOFWHATISLIKELYTO HAPPENBASEDONPASTEXPERIENCERECURRINGINTHEFUTURE)NSTEADPREDETERMINED ELEMENTSEMERGEFROMASYSTEMICUNDERSTANDINGOFDRIVINGFORCESPUSHINGFOR INEVITABLEOUTCOMESANDTHESEOUTCOMESCANBEPLANNEDFOR)NTHISCHAPTER) EXPLORETHISIMPORTANTIDEATOHELPENHANCEOURUNDERSTANDINGOFTHECONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENTANDHOWSCENARIOSHELPTOADDRESSTHETURBULENTCONDITIONSINIT
4HEREISATHREEFOLDPURPOSEFORTHISCHAPTER4HElRSTPURPOSEISTOPROVIDEANEW SYNTHESISOF7ACKSAB SEMINALTHINKINGONSCENARIOPLANNINGWHICH ARTICULATEDTHREEINTEGRATEDFUNDAMENTALPRINCIPLESFORSUCHWORK
THE@MACROSCOPE PREDETERMINEDELEMENTSAND CHANGEINMANAGERIALTHINKINGANDACTINGPREVIOUSLYDESCRIBEDSKETCHILYIN
AWORKINGPAPERENTITLED4HE'ENTLE!RTOF2EPERCEIVING7ACK
)ELABORATEUPONEACHPRINCIPLEBELOW 4HESECONDPURPOSEISTOEXPLOREANDEXPANDUPONTHESECONDOFTHETHREE
FUNDAMENTALPRINCIPLESnPREDETERMINEDELEMENTS4HISISTHEFOCUSOFTHECHAPTER ) EXPLAINHOW THE RECOGNITIONOFPREDETERMINEDELEMENTS IN THECONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENTHELPS TOCREATENEWUNDERSTANDINGOFANEMERGINGREALITY4HE CHAPTERADDSTOOURCOMPREHENSIONOFPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSBYSHOWINGTHE CONDITIONSFORPOTENTIALDISCONTINUITYCAPTUREDANDMODELLEDBYSYSTEMANALYSES )NTHEEXAMPLE)USETOGROUNDMYARGUMENTTHESCENARIOPLANNERSTHEMSELVES BECAMECONSCIOUSOFTHEINEVITABLEOUTCOMETHATTHEYHADIDENTIlEDFROMTHEIR SCENARIO BUILDINGANDSENSE MAKINGACTIVITIES4HEYREALIZEDTHATPASTHISTORICAL INDUSTRYACTIONSWHOSEOUTCOMESWOULDEMERGEASTHEIRFUTURECONTEXTWERE CONSEQUENTIALFORTHEIRINDUSTRYINWAYSTHATTHEYHADNOTPREVIOUSLYPERCEIVED )NMYEXPERIENCEOFOVERYEARSOFSCENARIOWORKSUCHOCCURRENCESOFTENOCCUR DURINGSCENARIO PLANNINGEXERCISES 4HETHIRDPURPOSEOFTHISCHAPTERISTOILLUSTRATETHEINTEGRATIONOFSYSTEM
ANALYSISWITHSCENARIOPLANNINGTOHELPSTRUCTUREMANAGERIALUNDERSTANDINGOF THEKEYVARIABLESANDTHEIRINTERRELATIONSHIPWITHINASCENARIOSTORY4HISHELPSTO STRUCTURETHEUNFOLDINGLOGICOFTHEPREDETERMINEDELEMENTS
7HILEPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSCANBE RECOGNIZEDASCRUCIAL FORBUSINESS PLANNINGFOR7ACKTHEYWEREONLYASTEPTOWARDSBEINGABLETO@SEEANEWREALITY 7ACKAB"URTAND7RIGHT 7ACKSUGGESTEDONECANONLY @SEEANEWREALITYBYMOVINGONFROMTHECONCEPTUALCONSTRUCTSINWHICHTHEOLD REALITYWASEXPRESSED)NTHISRESPECT7ACKWASONTHESAMEWAVELENGTHAS)RWINS WELL KNOWNMAXIMSEEINGISFORGETTINGTHENAMEOFTHETHINGONESEES7ESCHLER 4HEREFOREONEOUTCOMEOFASCENARIO BUILDINGPROCESSISTHECOMBINATION OFKNOWINGTHELIMITATIONOFONESPERCEPTIONSANDEXPERIENCESANDREINTERPRETING ANDTRANSFORMINGSUCHPERCEPTIONSANDEXPERIENCESTOPRODUCEANEWANDREFRAMED UNDERSTANDINGOFTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENT
)NTHENEXT SECTIONOF THECHAPTER ) REVIEWTHEmAWS INPLANNINGTHAT7ACK RECOGNIZED FROMHIS EXPERIENCES&OLLOWINGON FROMTHAT SECTION )DEVELOP THEHISTORICALLINKBETWEENTHEWORKOF%MERYAND4RISTANDTHATOF7ACK4HE HISTORICALLINKCONCERNSCAUSALTEXTURESARISINGFROMOUTCOMESOFTHEINTERACTION BETWEENINTERRELATEDACTORSANDDRIVINGFORCESANDHOW7ACKSWORKMAKESIT POSSIBLETOINVESTIGATEANDIDENTIFYTHEMANDTHEUNFOLDINGCONSEQUENCESFORTHE ORGANIZATIONnIFNOTHINGELSECHANGED3UCHUNDERSTANDINGCANBEREPRESENTEDIN SCENARIOSTORIES&OLLOWINGONFROMTHEDISCUSSIONOFTHEHISTORICALLINKBETWEENTHE WORKOF%MERYAND4RISTAND7ACK)PRESENTANEWSYNTHESISOF7ACKSIDEASABOUT THEPURPOSEOFSCENARIOPLANNING4HERESTOFTHEDISCUSSIONINTHECHAPTERISBASED AROUNDACASESTUDYTOHELPDISCUSSANDELABORATEUPONTHEIDEAOFPREDETERMINED ELEMENTSASAPRECURSORTODEVELOPINGANUNDERSTANDINGOFANEWCONTEXTUALREALITY THATULTIMATELYSHOULDLEADTONEWORGANIZATIONALACTION
7ACKWASATTEMPTINGTOADDRESSWHATHESAWASTWOMAJORmAWSINPLANNINGAS ITEXISTEDINHISTIME
PLANSBASEDONBUSINESS AS USUALTHINKINGANDPREDICTIONSANDOR THEACCEPTANCEOFRECASTINGPLANSYEARONYEARBASEDONASEEMINGLY MORE
CONlDENTSETOFNEWBUTNOTALWAYSFULLYSUBSTANTIATED ASSUMPTIONSWHICH HEREFERREDTOASTHE@PHENOMENONOFMOVINGSANDS
4HEUSEOFTHEMETAPHOR@MOVINGSANDSWASTOHIGHLIGHTPHENOMENATHATLOOKED SIMILAR INNATURETOTHEORIGINALPHENOMENABUTHAD INFACTCHANGEDINITS INHERENTSTATEDUETOEXTERNALFORCESWITHTHECHANGESUNRECOGNIZED
)NTHElRSTOFTHESEmAWS7ACKWASCHALLENGINGTHEBELIEFTHATTHEFUTUREWOULD BETHESAMEASTHEPASTBUTLATER7ACKHADRECOGNIZEDTHATSUCHBELIEFSAND CONSEQUENTBEHAVIOUR WOULDMAKEANORGANIZATIONVULNERABLETOUNEXPECTED DISCONTINUITIES)NTHESECONDOFTHESEmAWS7ACKWASCONCERNEDABOUTTHEEASE WITHWHICHMANAGERSWOULDACCEPTLIMITEDBASESFORFACTSWHENDEVELOPINGPLANS 7ACKSAWTHESEmAWSAS@EXCUSESFORANINABILITYORUNWILLINGNESSTOEMBRACE EXPLOREANDULTIMATELYINCORPORATEUNCERTAINTYWITHINPLANNING
4HISBOOKMAKESITPOSSIBLETOBEGINTOUNDERSTANDTHEHISTORICALLINKBETWEEN CAUSALTEXTURESESPECIALLY@TURBULENCE%MERYAND4RIST ANDTHENEEDFOR AMOREINSIGHTFULAPPROACHTOEXPLOREANDUNDERSTANDCONTEXT7ACKA B $URINGTHES%MERYAND4RISTWERETHEORIZINGABOUT@CONTEXTASTHE EMERGINGCHALLENGETOSTRATEGYANDPLANNING INORGANIZATIONS4HEYIDENTIlED FOURTYPESOFCAUSALTEXTURESORENVIRONMENTS DIFFERENTIATEDBYTHEDEGREEOF INTERCONNECTEDNESSBETWEENTHEORGANIZATIONSCREATINGTHEIRSHAREDCONTEXTAND THERESULTINGEXTENTOFRELEVANTUNCERTAINTY%MERYAND4RIST 7ACKWASINmUENCEDBYTHEIDEAOFTHEORGANIZATIONASANORGANISMOPERATING
ASPARTOFANOPENSYSTEMASOPPOSED TOACLOSEDSYSTEM4HEOPENSYSTEM INmUENCESTHEORGANISMANDTHEORGANISMINmUENCESTHEOPENSYSTEM(OWEVER ATTHATTIMEMANYMANAGERSCONSIDEREDTHEIRORGANIZATIONTOBEACLOSEDSYSTEM ,IKE%MERYAND4RIST7ACKADVOCATEDFORPROACTIVEENGAGEMENTINEXPLORINGTHE CONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTTOUNDERSTANDTHEDRIVINGFORCESFORCHANGERATHERTHAN AREACTIVERESPONSEWHENCHANGEWASIMPOSEDBYTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTON ANORGANIZATION $URINGTHESSCENARIOPLANNINGWASEMERGINGASANAPPROACHTOEXPLORE
ANDUNDERSTANDCHANGEINTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENT7ACKEXPERIMENTEDWITH ITASANALTERNATIVE APPROACHTOOVERCOMEDIFlCULTIESTHATHEEXPERIENCEDIN PLANNINGAT3HELLSINCEITHADTHEPOTENTIALTOREPRESENTANDEXPLAINTHEUNTILTHEN UNEXPLOREDCAUSALRELATIONSHIPSBETWEENCONTEXTUALVARIABLES
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BY+AHNSTHINKINGANDSETOUTTOEXPLOREANDUNDERSTANDTHESCENARIOAPPROACH ANDHOWITMAYBERELEVANTINACORPORATESETTING !FTERMANYYEARSINPRACTICE7ACKSETOUTHISREmECTIONSONSCENARIOPLANNING
INTWOPAPERS7ACKAB )ARGUEHERE)THINKFORTHElRSTTIME THAT 7ACKSTHREEFUNDAMENTALPRINCIPLESAREINTRINSICALLYLINKEDTOEACHOTHERASA PROCESSTOCHALLENGEHOWMANAGERSPERCEIVEINTERPRETANDUNDERSTANDCHANGEIN THECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENT"ELOW)EXPLAINTHETHREEFUNDAMENTALPRINCIPLES BRIEmYANDLATERINTHECHAPTER)DEVELOPTHEINTERLINKAGESBETWEENTHEPRINCIPLES 4HETHREEFUNDAMENTALPRINCIPLESARE
4HE@MACROSCOPEWHICHISAMETAPHORFORTHEPROCESSOFENGAGINGINEXPLORING ANDUNDERSTANDINGCONTEXTBEYONDTHINKINGOFITASTHEBIGGERSYSTEMIN WHICHANORGANIZATIONOPERATES)TENABLESMANAGERSTOSEEDISTANTINTIME ANDSPACE YETINTERCONNECTEDEVENTS3UCHAPROCESSTHEREFORESTRETCHESWHAT THEYPERCEIVEBRINGINGISSUESINTOVIEWTHATWEREPREVIOUSLYNOTRECOGNIZED ORUNDERSTOODWHICHALLOWSFORTHEIDENTIlCATIONOFTHEFOLLOWING
0REDETERMINED ELEMENTS EVENTS THAT HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED ALTHOUGH POSSIBLYNOTYETUNFOLDED ASTHEBASISOFPLANNING!SACONSEQUENCETHIS LEADSTOTHENEXTPRINCIPLE
4HEENTRENCHEDBELIEFSYSTEMSOFSHIFTMANAGERSTOMAKETHEMACTONTHESE NEWINSIGHTSLEADINGTORE PERCEPTION4HISINTURNRESULTSINCHANGEWHAT 7ACKCALLEDTHEGENTLEARTOFRE PERCEIVING
)NTHISCHAPTER)SHOWTHATTHESYSTEMICSTRUCTURESTHATAREDISCOVEREDWITHSCENARIOS WERENOTPREVIOUSLYVISIBLETOTHECASESTUDY MANAGERSANDTHATTHEYEMERGEFROM THEIRJOINTCONSTRUCTIONEXPLORATIONANDUNDERSTANDINGOFSCENARIOSCONSTRUCTED TOADDRESSRELEVANTUNCERTAINTYnANDTHUSTHETURBULENTlELD(OWEVERTHE NEUROBIOLOGYORCOGNITIVEPSYCHOLOGYOFTHISHASNOTTOOURKNOWLEDGEBEEN ELUCIDATEDTODATE 7ACKBASEDHISWORKONTHEPREMISETHATSCENARIOSHAVETHEABILITYTOHELP
PEOPLEEXPLORETHEIRENVIRONMENTHARNESSMULTIPLEPERSPECTIVESABOUTITAND STRUCTURETHEIRTHOUGHTSANDUNDERSTANDINGINAWAYTHATISMEANINGFULFORTHE @EXPLORERS7ACKBP STATED
,ETSNOWLOOKATTHESECONDPRINCIPLEnPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSnWHICHISTHE FOCUSOFTHISCHAPTER
7ACKSUGGESTEDTHATWITHINTHEENVIRONMENTPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSCOULDBE IDENTIlEDAS
s EVENTSTHATAREALREADYINTHEPIPELINEANDWILLEMERGEINTIME s ASERIESOFINTERRELATEDACTIONSTHATWILLTOGETHERBECO PRODUCINGAPARTICULAR OUTCOMEANDOR
s INERTIALFORCESWITHINTHEWIDERCONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTWHICHARESLOWTO CHANGE
!NEXAMPLEOF@EVENTSTHATAREINTHEPIPELINEANDWILLEMERGEINTIMEWOULDBE THENUMBEROFCHILDRENBORNINAPARTICULARYEARWHOWILLENTERPRIMARYSCHOOL lVEYEARSAFTERBIRTHWITHTHEIMPLICATIONTHATCOULDBEDRAWNABOUTTHEDEMAND FORTEACHERSINTHEFUTURE !NEXAMPLEOF@ASERIESOFINTERRELATEDACTIONSTHATWILLTOGETHERBECO PRODUCING
APARTICULAROUTCOMEWOULDBEHOWTRANSPORTATIONCONGESTIONANDEMISSIONSINA COUNTRYTAKENWITHANINABILITYOFTHERAILNETWORKTOATTRACTFREIGHTFROMTRUCKS ANDLORRIESGOVERNMENTPOLICIESANDORINTERVENTIONSANDCARMANUFACTURERS PRODUCTDEVELOPMENTANDCONSUMERATTITUDESINCREASINGTHEDEMANDFORCARS ESPECIALLYFOUR BY FOURSPORTSUTILITYVEHICLES356S WILLALLINCREASETHEDEMAND FORPETROLANDDIESELWITHTHECONSEQUENTIMPACTUPONAIRPOLLUTION !NEXAMPLEOF@INERTIALFORCESWITHINTHESYSTEMWHICHARESLOWTOCHANGE
WOULDBEUNIVERSITIESANDTHEIRROLEASBROADEDUCATIONALINSTITUTIONSTHATFACILITATE KNOWLEDGETRANSFERFROMGENERATIONTOGENERATION )NOWPUTSOME@mESHONTHEBONESOFHOWPREDETERMINEDELEMENTSCONNECT
WITH%MERYAND4RISTS IDEASONTURBULENCEBYDEVELOPING7ACKSSECOND PRINCIPLEINRELATIONTOARECENTCASESTUDY)WASINVOLVEDINASCONSULTANT
4HECASESTUDYPRESENTEDHEREAROSEFROMANACTION LEARNINGINTERVENTION2EVANS -ORGANAND2AM¤REZ WITHTHEMANAGERSOFANENGINEERINGORIGINAL EQUIPMENTMANUFACTURER/%- ANDPOWER INDUSTRYSERVICEPROVIDERINTHE5+ 4HESEMANAGERSWEREATTEMPTINGTOUNDERSTANDTHEFUTUREBASISOF"RITISHPOWER GENERATIONGIVENTHEEXPERIENCEOFPOWERSHORTAGESANDINDUSTRYDEREGULATIONAS WELLASPROPOSEDFUTUREDEREGULATIONINTHE5+AND.ORTH!MERICA)BELIEVETHAT THEAPPROACHSETOUTINTHISCHAPTERCANBEADOPTEDINOTHERSETTINGS
Case study outcomes
3CENARIOSPROVIDEADESCRIPTIONOFAFUTUREENDSTATEOFTHECONTEXTOFANORGANIZATION INAHORIZONYEARASWELLASANINTERPRETATIONOFPASTANDCURRENTEVENTSOFTHAT CONTEXTANDTHEIRPROPAGATIONINTOTHEFUTUREINANINTERNALLYCONSISTENTACCOUNT OFHOWAFUTUREWORLDMIGHTUNFOLD4HESCENARIOSTORYCAPTURESAREPRESENTATION OFTHEDYNAMICINTERPLAYOFEVENTSSHOWINGHOWTHESEINTERCONNECTANDIMPACT UPONEACHOTHERREVEALINGTHEIRLOGICALCONSEQUENCESINTHEHORIZONYEAR"URT ETAL )NTHECASE)PRESENTHERETHEMANAGERSPRIORITIZEDTHERANGEOFUNCERTAINTIES
FROMTHEIRPERSPECTIVECONCERNINGTHEFUTUREOF5+POWERGENERATION4HEYTHEN IDENTIlEDTHETWOCRITICALUNCERTAINTIESTHATWOULDHAVETHEHIGHESTIMPACTUPON THEIRCONTEXTINTHISCASE
CHANGEINTHEGLOBALECONOMYDRIVINGENERGYDEMANDAND CHANGEINTHEGLOBALNATUREANDSTRUCTUREOFTHEMARKET
4HESETWOCRITICALUNCERTAINTIESWERETHENFURTHERDISCUSSEDANDEXPLOREDTO IDENTIFYPOSSIBLEDEVELOPMENTSINTHEFUTUREINTERMSOFPLAUSIBLEPOLAROUTCOMES DEPICTINGTHEFUTUREPOSSIBLECONTEXTS4HESEWEREARTICULATEDASFOLLOWS
#HANGEINTHEGLOBALECONOMYDRIVINGDEMANDFORENERGY s HARMONYGROWTHANDINCREASINGDEMANDFORENERGYOR s CONmICTANDFRAGMENTATIONWITHLITTLEORNOINCREASEINENERGYDEMAND
#HANGEINTHEGLOBALNATUREANDSTRUCTUREOFTHEMARKET s MANYANDDIFFUSEDCUSTOMERSOR s FEWERCUSTOMERSWITHINCREASINGBUYINGPOWER
#OMBININGTHESEOUTCOMESBYUSINGATWO BY TWOSCENARIO STRUCTURINGMATRIX THEMANAGERSDElNEDFOURDIFFERENTBUTPLAUSIBLEALTERNATIVEFUTURESENDSTATES 4HESEPLAUSIBLEALTERNATIVEFUTURESWEREENTITLED
@RETRENCHMENT @lLLYOURBOOTS @SURVIVEORDIEAND @WINORLOSE
&ORTHEMANAGERSTHESESCENARIOTITLESCAPTUREDANDREPRESENTEDTHEEMERGING NATUREANDLOGICOFEACHOFTHESEFUTURES4HETWO BY TWOMATRIXISPRESENTEDAS &IGURE 4HEFOLLOWINGSUB SECTIONSPROVIDEASNAPSHOTOFTHESCENARIOSBASEDONTHESE
ENDSTATES
‘Retrenchment’ )NTHISSCENARIOTHEGLOBALECONOMYWILLHAVESTALLEDDUETOINCREASEDTERRORISM WHICHWILLHAVEDAMPENEDBUSINESSACTIVITYINMANYSECTORS"USINESSTRAVELWAS HITHARDANDOVERTIMETHEWORRIESOVERTERRORISMLEDTOINCREASEDREGIONALAND LESSGLOBALTRADE#ONSEQUENTLYFORTHEINDUSTRYTHEREWASLESSENERGYTECHNOLOGY TRANSFERFEWERNEWPLANTBUILDSANDACUTBACKINTHEIREXPENDITUREINRESEARCHAND DEVELOPMENT.EWBUILDCOMMISSIONINGWASDEEMED@RISKYINNEWLYADMITTED %UROPEAN5NION%5 COUNTRIES#USTOMERSWEREBOUNDBYTIGHTLOCALREGULATORY CONTROLSTHATWEREGOVERNEDBYTHE%5WHICHMADEDESIGNSPECIlCATIONCOMPLEX ANDLEGALISTIC!LLOFTHISRESULTEDINLITTLEOPPORTUNITYFORGROWTHINTHEENERGY MARKETANDLEDTOINCREASEDCOMPETITIONRESULTINGINASCALINGBACKOFBUSINESS FORPOWERINDUSTRYSERVICEPROVIDERS
‘Fill your boots’ )NTHISSCENARIOTHEGLOBALECONOMYWILLHAVEEXPANDEDONTHEBACKOFMARKET DEREGULATION4HE%5HASEXPANDEDITSBOUNDARYTOCAPTURETHEBENElTSOFGLOBAL GROWTHANDCONlDENCE$EMANDFORELECTRICITYHASINCREASEDWITHABIGGERENERGY MARKETWITHMANYOPPORTUNITIES!SACONSEQUENCEOFGROWTHTHELABOURMARKET ISTIGHTWITHLABOURBECOMINGEXPENSIVE4HETHREATOFTERRORISMCONTINUES!
