ABSTRACT
Most shocking in the modern world is the contrast between what could be and what is. Biologically speaking, the human species should be near the beginning of its evolutionary run. Tsunamis and volcanoes happen, and asteroids are a constant threat, but the long history of the world suggests that with average luck our species should last for another million years – and then our descendants might draw breath and contemplate the following million. Experience and simple extrapolation suggest that if we manage the world well, it is perfectly capable of supporting all of us to a very high standard through all that time – the 6.7 billion or so who are with us now, and the 9.5 billion who will be with us within a few decades. Yet we are being warned from all sides – not simply, these days, by the professional environmentalists – that the human species will be lucky to survive through the present century in a tolerable or even in a recognizable form; and the warnings look all too plausible.
