ABSTRACT
In this chapter, the authors present two models (statistical and expert judgement) that can accurately predict which platforms are likely to have an accident or spill. The models are developed using a set of risk factors associated with the platforms' physical characteristics. Early efforts at risk assessment of platforms using operational or historical information were unsuccessful, primarily for lack of properly organized data. In 1985, the situation was as follows: There is currently no single comprehensive source of statistics on US offshore accidents, and there are no reliable injury and fatality rate statistics for offshore operations beyond those compiled by the International Association of Drilling Contractors for individual workplace accidents in offshore drilling. Minerals Management Service inspects each platform in the Gulf of Mexico at least once per year. If a problem is noted during an inspection, the inspector issues a violation notice to the platform operator, called an incident of noncompliance.
