ABSTRACT
Understanding jet aircraft accident statistics has always been hampered by low average yearly accident numbers and unavailability of detailed utilization data. Hence, throughout the years only very few parameters have been identified that are a factor in (differences in) accident rates. As such have been recognized: original in-service entry’ date of the type and geographic region of operation. To attain a better understanding of the latter factor, an exercise has been undertaken to statistically investigate the differences in accident rates of the B737, DC9 and F28 aircraft. A major element in the approach has been to use the accident rates of the B737 and the DC9 and then apply the F28 utilization distribution for determination of how the hypothetical B737 and DC9 accident rates would have been if they would have been operated by the same mix of operators as the F28. The strength of the economy of the country of the operator appeared to be the overruling influence factor, explaining for most of the differences in accident rates. This finding indicates that addressing the traditional ‘human factor’ will not succeed in bringing down accident rates worldwide if the economic environment in which individual airlines operate (the ‘prosperity factor’) is left untouched.
