ABSTRACT
This paper assesses the performance of available burst strength prediction models of pipelines. 25 burst strength models for corroded pipelines are analysed and grouped into three main categories based on their formulation. The models’ performance is first assessed deterministically by estimating and comparing the burst pressure of corroded pipelines predicted by each model in each category. The model predictions are compared for increasing normalised corrosion defects, taking the predictions of a code strength model as reference. Then, reliability analyses are conducted for limit state functions formulated in terms of the 25 burst strength models by Monte Carlo simulation to check their probabilistic performance and conservatism in each formulation category. Finally, measures of model uncertainty are derived to describe the variability in the structural safety among the models. The objective is to provide information on the available models applicable for integrity management of corroded pipelines.
