ABSTRACT
The current debate on the future shape of the international system is centered upon the proposition that the end of US unipolarity and its replacement by multipolarity is just around the corner. No one truly contests the idea that the United States will remain one of the system's poles or great powers, as persuasively argued by Zakaria and others. There is also general consensus that the primary candidates for great power or pole status are China, India, Russia, and the European Union (EU). If all four ascend, the future international system will replicate the five-power, multipolar European state system of the past. However, there is no reason to expect that all four, or any, will ascend. Moreover, the debate on system transformation is wrought with disagreement about the prerequisites for ascent and the likelihood that each candidate will succeed. In effect, multipolarity may not be inevitable in the foreseeable future, and unipolarity may not disappear. Even if unipolarity remains, the shape of international politics is changing, with significant implications for all major actors.
