ABSTRACT

Despite intense interest in the impact of trade expansion on men and women workers in US manufacturing sector, there are surprisingly few empirical studies, and available studies indicate contradictory findings. Focusing on the pre-NAFTA period, a few studies have found benign or positive effects of trade expansion on female share of manufacturing employment or decline in the gender wage gap (Wood 1991; Black and Brainerd 2004). These results are inconsistent with predictions of standard trade theory and other empirical studies. The widely accepted version of comparative advantage trade theory predicts relative losses for less-skilled workers in industrialized economies compared to skilled workers when trade expands. This prediction is supported by studies that show widening wage inequality between skilled and less-skilled workers in the US (Katz and Murphy 1992; Borjas and Ramey 1994, 1995). To the extent that women are the less-skilled workers in the US, they are expected to experience disproportionate job losses and wage declines as a result of the changing trade patterns. A number of empirical studies find evidence for the adverse effect of trade on relative employment opportunities of women in the traded (manufacturing) sector (Schumacher 1984; Katz and Murphy 1992; Kucera and Milberg 2000; Kucera 2001).