ABSTRACT

During the 1970s, Mexico's economic growth became significantly more unstable than it had been for a considerable number of years. One reason for caution in judging the recuperative powers of the Mexican economy stems from the simple fact that each year the number of people entering the labor force will continue to be substantial—and unemployment, both disguised and overt, is already a problem. Given the severe economic hardships the electorate already confronts, it would be especially difficult politically to damage popular aspirations further by curtailment in the sensitive areas. By the end of 1985, the Mexican record began to look rather more blemished. The reasons for the change are important to consider in assessing prospects for the next five years. Most disconcerting, in some ways, to the international financial community was the appearance of extraordinary uncertainty on the part of Mexican officials regarding just how much additional foreign loans the economy might need in 1986.